Variable Sources


     The data through 1970 are from Bureau of the Census
(1975), except where noted.

Crime.  Murder, assault, rape, and robbry are reported crime
combiled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation.  Data after
1959 are from Federal Bureau of Investigation (1976-95).  The
1947-59 data are from Office of Management and Budget (1974). 
We thank David McDowall of SUNY Albany for supplying the 1947-
59 data.

Executions.  From the Capital Punishment series published by
the Bureau of Justice Statistics (Stephan and Snell, 1996, and
similar reports for earlier years).

Population.  From Bureau of Economic Analysis (1995).

Population, Age Groups.  Data from the Bureau of Census Web
Cite //www.census.gov/ftp/pub/population/estimates.

Population, Nonwhite.  From the Bureau of Census, Current
Population Reports, P-25 series.

Personal Income.  From Bureau of Economic Analysis (1995).

Prison Population.  The data are for prisoners sentenced to
prison terms of more than a year to state or federal prison. 
Through 1976 the data are for inmates in prison custody, and
afterwards they are for prisoners under prison jurisdiction. 
The latter include prisoners in local jails due to prison
overcrowding.  The custody data (1947-76) are from Langan et
al. (1988).  The jurisdiction data are from the Bureau of
Justice Statistics (Snell, 1995, and similar reports for
earlier years).  The 1993 and 1994 data (the latter are
preliminary) are from unpublished tables supplied by the
Bureau.
     The data are adjusted because some states did not report
every year and others changed definitions of prison population. 
Arkansas (1968-70), Delaware (1968-70), North Carolina (1968),
and Rhode Island (1968-70) have missing data, which are
estimated by assuming that they are the average of the year
before and year after the gaps.  Changes in counting procedures
occurred in California (pre-1971 data include prisoners other
than those sentenced for over a year and are reduced by 30
percent, the difference between 1970 and 1971 figures), Oregon
(until 1991 the figures include prisoners sentenced to less
than a year, and this measure is used for all years), Texas
(the 1991-1992 data for prisoners in jail due to overcrowding
are not available, and it is assumed that jurisdiction counts
grew at a constant rate over that period).

Unemployment Rate.  From Federal Reserve Bulletin, various
issues.

Welfare.  Social welfare expenditures under public programs,
from Social Security Bulletin, various issues.  Figures for
1993 and 1994 are not available and are estimated by assuming
that 1992-93 growth continued.



                          References

Bureau of the Census, 1975, Historical Statistics of the United
States, Colonial Times to 1970.  Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office.

Bureau of Economic Analysis, 1995, State Annual Summary Tables,
1929-1994, U.S. and All Regions, (computer disk) Washington,
D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce.

Bureau of Justice Statistics, 1978-1995. Correctional
Populations in the United States  Washington, DC: U.S.
Department of Justice.

Federal Bureau of Investigation, 1976-95, Uniform Crime
Reports,  Washington, DC: Government Printing Office. 

Patrick A. Langan, John V. Fundis, Lawrence A. Greenfeld, and
Victoria W. Schneider, 1988 Historical Statistics on Prisoners
in State and Federal Institutions, Yearend 1925-86. Washington,
DC: U.S. Department of Justice.

Office of Management and Budget, 1974, Social Indicators, 1973. 
Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Snell, 1995, Correctional Populations in the United States.
Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice.