RESULTS OF FIRST DIFFERENCE ANALYSIS: REPORTED ---- PcFiml 8.00, copy for Carl Moody ---- ---- session started at 15:25:23 on 18th October 1996 ---- Data loaded from: restat2.in7 and restat2.bn7 EQ( 1) Estimating the unrestricted reduced form by OLS The present sample is: 1950 to 1994 URF Equation 1 for dlprison Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob dlprison_1 0.68247 0.29220 2.336 0.0377 dlprison_2 -0.23941 0.35378 -0.677 0.5114 dlmurder_1 -0.019887 0.14093 -0.141 0.8901 dlmurder_2 -0.081322 0.14179 -0.574 0.5769 dlassaul_1 -0.16920 0.18424 -0.918 0.3765 dlassaul_2 0.042336 0.15596 0.271 0.7906 dlrape_1 -0.13013 0.080484 -1.617 0.1319 dlrape_2 0.053975 0.094472 0.571 0.5783 dlrob_1 0.055738 0.096196 0.579 0.5730 dlrob_2 -0.041834 0.074273 -0.563 0.5836 dlp1 0.15765 0.13663 1.154 0.2710 dlp1_1 -0.20515 0.15040 -1.364 0.1976 dlp2 0.98488 0.51944 1.896 0.0823 dlp2_1 -1.3148 0.54613 -2.407 0.0331 dlp3 0.26121 0.40108 0.651 0.5272 dlp3_1 0.27680 0.34994 0.791 0.4443 dlp4 0.66383 0.52832 1.256 0.2328 dlp4_1 -0.42624 0.47925 -0.889 0.3913 dlinc -0.19655 0.35670 -0.551 0.5917 dlinc_1 -0.021996 0.40186 -0.055 0.9573 dlwel1 0.093231 0.099742 0.935 0.3684 dlwel1_1 0.069636 0.092527 0.753 0.4662 dlwel2 -0.056881 0.24179 -0.235 0.8180 dlwel2_1 -0.020449 0.18812 -0.109 0.9152 dlue 0.027262 0.043743 0.623 0.5448 dlue_1 0.0095883 0.045261 0.212 0.8358 dlexec1 -0.0058831 0.010449 -0.563 0.5838 dlexec1_1 -0.0041797 0.0091619 -0.456 0.6564 dlnw 0.65138 0.91801 0.710 0.4915 dlnw_1 1.4643 0.81930 1.787 0.0992 dcrack 0.013533 0.012827 1.055 0.3122 ddum77 0.016677 0.023276 0.716 0.4874 Constant -0.0040002 0.022844 -0.175 0.8639 å = 0.0157386 RSS = 0.002972459114 URF Equation 2 for dlmurder Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob dlprison_1 -1.1032 0.99197 -1.112 0.2879 dlprison_2 1.0117 1.2010 0.842 0.4161 dlmurder_1 -0.085856 0.47843 -0.179 0.8606 dlmurder_2 0.088396 0.48136 0.184 0.8574 dlassaul_1 -0.53229 0.62546 -0.851 0.4114 dlassaul_2 0.021628 0.52945 0.041 0.9681 dlrape_1 0.21415 0.27323 0.784 0.4484 dlrape_2 0.24158 0.32072 0.753 0.4658 dlrob_1 0.17460 0.32657 0.535 0.6027 dlrob_2 0.016591 0.25214 0.066 0.9486 dlp1 -0.30964 0.46385 -0.668 0.5171 dlp1_1 0.43845 0.51058 0.859 0.4073 dlp2 -0.94323 1.7634 -0.535 0.6025 dlp2_1 1.0527 1.8540 0.568 0.5806 dlp3 -0.19557 1.3616 -0.144 0.8882 dlp3_1 0.29454 1.1880 0.248 0.8084 dlp4 -0.10603 1.7935 -0.059 0.9538 dlp4_1 -0.79439 1.6270 -0.488 0.6342 dlinc 0.46874 1.2109 0.387 0.7055 dlinc_1 1.0484 1.3642 0.768 0.4571 dlwel1 0.40154 0.33861 1.186 0.2586 dlwel1_1 -0.29495 0.31411 -0.939 0.3662 dlwel2 -0.77416 0.82083 -0.943 0.3642 dlwel2_1 0.15661 0.63863 0.245 0.8104 dlue 0.061565 0.14850 0.415 0.6858 dlue_1 0.032277 0.15365 0.210 0.8371 dlexec1 -0.0097728 0.035472 -0.276 0.7876 dlexec1_1 -0.0014673 0.031103 -0.047 0.9631 dlnw 0.82830 3.1165 0.266 0.7949 dlnw_1 0.35787 2.7814 0.129 0.8998 dcrack 0.070815 0.043546 1.626 0.1299 ddum77 0.016041 0.079017 0.203 0.8425 Constant -0.021678 0.077551 -0.280 0.7846 å = 0.05343 RSS = 0.0342572063 URF Equation 3 for dlassaul Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob dlprison_1 0.049351 0.77383 0.064 0.9502 dlprison_2 0.29079 0.93690 0.310 0.7616 dlmurder_1 -0.0091185 0.37322 -0.024 0.9809 dlmurder_2 0.20406 0.37550 0.543 0.5968 dlassaul_1 -0.28754 0.48791 -0.589 0.5666 dlassaul_2 0.0058790 0.41301 0.014 0.9889 dlrape_1 0.027117 0.21314 0.127 0.9009 dlrape_2 0.17722 0.25019 0.708 0.4923 dlrob_1 0.12525 0.25475 0.492 0.6318 dlrob_2 -0.12256 0.19669 -0.623 0.5449 dlp1 0.28297 0.36184 0.782 0.4494 dlp1_1 0.27291 0.39830 0.685 0.5062 dlp2 -0.61480 1.3756 -0.447 0.6629 dlp2_1 1.0567 1.4463 0.731 0.4790 dlp3 -0.45888 1.0622 -0.432 0.6734 dlp3_1 0.71644 0.92673 0.773 0.4544 dlp4 -0.58549 1.3991 -0.418 0.6830 dlp4_1 -0.53800 1.2692 -0.424 0.6791 dlinc 1.8384 0.94464 1.946 0.0754 dlinc_1 0.26108 1.0642 0.245 0.8104 dlwel1 0.13267 0.26414 0.502 0.6246 dlwel1_1 -0.20092 0.24503 -0.820 0.4282 dlwel2 -0.86096 0.64032 -1.345 0.2036 dlwel2_1 -0.014489 0.49819 -0.029 0.9773 dlue 0.15219 0.11584 1.314 0.2135 dlue_1 -0.053778 0.11986 -0.449 0.6617 dlexec1 0.00013190 0.027671 0.005 0.9963 dlexec1_1 -0.00019538 0.024263 -0.008 0.9937 dlnw 1.9338 2.4311 0.795 0.4418 dlnw_1 -0.54822 2.1697 -0.253 0.8048 dcrack 0.056040 0.033969 1.650 0.1249 ddum77 -0.010284 0.061640 -0.167 0.8703 Constant 0.010715 0.060497 0.177 0.8624 å = 0.0416801 RSS = 0.02084675109 URF Equation 4 for dlrape Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob dlprison_1 -1.5080 1.0951 -1.377 0.1937 dlprison_2 2.9389 1.3259 2.217 0.0467 dlmurder_1 0.53873 0.52818 1.020 0.3279 dlmurder_2 -0.61200 0.53142 -1.152 0.2719 dlassaul_1 -1.3749 0.69050 -1.991 0.0697 dlassaul_2 0.0077228 0.58450 0.013 0.9897 dlrape_1 -0.15450 0.30164 -0.512 0.6178 dlrape_2 0.087519 0.35407 0.247 0.8089 dlrob_1 0.61607 0.36053 1.709 0.1132 dlrob_2 0.45395 0.27836 1.631 0.1289 dlp1 0.70468 0.51209 1.376 0.1939 dlp1_1 -0.025231 0.56368 -0.045 0.9650 dlp2 2.5189 1.9468 1.294 0.2200 dlp2_1 -2.3373 2.0468 -1.142 0.2758 dlp3 2.4192 1.5032 1.609 0.1335 dlp3_1 0.25067 1.3115 0.191 0.8516 dlp4 -0.33033 1.9801 -0.167 0.8703 dlp4_1 0.071582 1.7962 0.040 0.9689 dlinc -0.78720 1.3369 -0.589 0.5669 dlinc_1 2.2745 1.5061 1.510 0.1569 dlwel1 -0.099209 0.37382 -0.265 0.7952 dlwel1_1 -0.50754 0.34678 -1.464 0.1690 dlwel2 0.60742 0.90619 0.670 0.5154 dlwel2_1 0.37151 0.70504 0.527 0.6078 dlue -0.088608 0.16394 -0.540 0.5988 dlue_1 0.20944 0.16963 1.235 0.2406 dlexec1 -0.050653 0.039161 -1.293 0.2202 dlexec1_1 -0.023656 0.034338 -0.689 0.5040 dlnw -5.5444 3.4406 -1.611 0.1331 dlnw_1 0.40654 3.0706 0.132 0.8969 dcrack 0.023026 0.048074 0.479 0.6406 ddum77 0.082064 0.087235 0.941 0.3654 Constant 0.034581 0.085616 0.404 0.6934 å = 0.0589863 RSS = 0.04175262881 URF Equation 5 for dlrob Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob dlprison_1 -1.6466 1.0715 -1.537 0.1503 dlprison_2 1.2406 1.2973 0.956 0.3578 dlmurder_1 -0.43686 0.51678 -0.845 0.4145 dlmurder_2 -0.0047508 0.51994 -0.009 0.9929 dlassaul_1 -0.25423 0.67559 -0.376 0.7133 dlassaul_2 -0.10561 0.57188 -0.185 0.8566 dlrape_1 -0.019911 0.29513 -0.067 0.9473 dlrape_2 0.42124 0.34642 1.216 0.2474 dlrob_1 0.40444 0.35274 1.147 0.2739 dlrob_2 0.065058 0.27235 0.239 0.8152 dlp1 0.28187 0.50103 0.563 0.5841 dlp1_1 -0.43733 0.55151 -0.793 0.4432 dlp2 -0.27607 1.9047 -0.145 0.8872 dlp2_1 0.57372 2.0026 0.286 0.7794 dlp3 -0.76772 1.4708 -0.522 0.6112 dlp3_1 1.1999 1.2832 0.935 0.3682 dlp4 -1.0934 1.9373 -0.564 0.5829 dlp4_1 -0.010123 1.7574 -0.006 0.9955 dlinc 0.34668 1.3080 0.265 0.7955 dlinc_1 0.86316 1.4736 0.586 0.5689 dlwel1 0.54277 0.36575 1.484 0.1636 dlwel1_1 -0.43650 0.33929 -1.287 0.2225 dlwel2 -1.2281 0.88663 -1.385 0.1912 dlwel2_1 0.76688 0.68982 1.112 0.2880 dlue 0.20812 0.16040 1.298 0.2188 dlue_1 -0.21171 0.16597 -1.276 0.2262 dlexec1 -0.025447 0.038315 -0.664 0.5192 dlexec1_1 -0.016124 0.033596 -0.480 0.6399 dlnw 3.2123 3.3663 0.954 0.3588 dlnw_1 2.7694 3.0043 0.922 0.3748 dcrack 0.043221 0.047036 0.919 0.3763 ddum77 -0.065573 0.085351 -0.768 0.4572 Constant -0.043723 0.083767 -0.522 0.6112 å = 0.0577127 RSS = 0.03996906181 correlation of URF residuals dlprison dlmurder dlassaul dlrape dlrob dlprison 1.000 dlmurder -0.4276 1.000 dlassaul -0.2222 0.7763 1.000 dlrape -0.2836 0.7642 0.6639 1.000 dlrob -0.2762 0.7630 0.6925 0.5524 1.0000 standard deviations of URF residuals dlprison dlmurder dlassaul dlrape dlrob 0.01574 0.05343 0.04168 0.05899 0.05771 loglik = 934.11111 log|ê| = -41.516 |ê| = 9.32843e-019 T = 45 log|Y'Y/T| = -31.7781 Rý(LR) = 0.999941 Rý(LM) = 0.8056 F-test against unrestricted regressors, F(160, 44) = 1.7206 [0.0186] * variables entered unrestricted: Constant F-tests on retained regressors, F(5, 8) dlprison_1 1.45728 [0.3024] dlprison_2 1.16075 [0.4044] dlmurder_1 0.573250 [0.7202] dlmurder_2 0.774035 [0.5945] dlassaul_1 0.963463 [0.4925] dlassaul_2 0.0322650 [0.9992] dlrape_1 0.846500 [0.5534] dlrape_2 0.353449 [0.8665] dlrob_1 0.923235 [0.5127] dlrob_2 1.25789 [0.3673] dlp1 1.85934 [0.2076] dlp1_1 1.20314 [0.3878] dlp2 1.48707 [0.2939] dlp2_1 1.77198 [0.2248] dlp3 1.14218 [0.4120] dlp3_1 0.328037 [0.8825] dlp4 0.429631 [0.8164] dlp4_1 0.374824 [0.8527] dlinc 1.59690 [0.2647] dlinc_1 0.471004 [0.7886] dlwel1 1.17736 [0.3978] dlwel1_1 0.471331 [0.7884] dlwel2 1.07458 [0.4407] dlwel2_1 0.434191 [0.8134] dlue 0.884194 [0.5330] dlue_1 1.08000 [0.4383] dlexec1 0.653208 [0.6683] dlexec1_1 0.269285 [0.9176] dlnw 1.48650 [0.2940] dlnw_1 0.938784 [0.5048] dcrack 1.23198 [0.3768] ddum77 0.599897 [0.7027] correlation of actual and fitted dlprison dlmurder dlassaul dlrape dlrob 0.9793 0.8559 0.8551 0.8475 0.9453 dlprison: Portmanteau 6 lags= 3.9656 dlmurder: Portmanteau 6 lags= 6.781 dlassaul: Portmanteau 6 lags= 15.396 dlrape : Portmanteau 6 lags= 12.296 dlrob : Portmanteau 6 lags= 9.6483 dlprison: AR 1- 1F( 1, 11) = 1.6417 [0.2264] dlmurder: AR 1- 1F( 1, 11) = 0.99231 [0.3406] dlassaul: AR 1- 1F( 1, 11) = 12.508 [0.0047] ** dlrape : AR 1- 1F( 1, 11) = 0.07071 [0.7952] dlrob : AR 1- 1F( 1, 11) = 1.5186 [0.2435] dlprison: Normality Chiý(2)= 0.42125 [0.8101] dlmurder: Normality Chiý(2)= 0.14382 [0.9306] dlassaul: Normality Chiý(2)= 3.6004 [0.1653] dlrape : Normality Chiý(2)= 6.669 [0.0356] * dlrob : Normality Chiý(2)= 0.77322 [0.6794] dlprison: ARCH 1 F( 1, 10) = 0.17703 [0.6828] dlmurder: ARCH 1 F( 1, 10) = 0.00084051 [0.9774] dlassaul: ARCH 1 F( 1, 10) = 0.76547 [0.4021] dlrape : ARCH 1 F( 1, 10) = 0.0060052 [0.9398] dlrob : ARCH 1 F( 1, 10) = 0.0048651 [0.9458] Vector portmanteau 6 lags= 209.43 Vector AR 1-1 F(25, 12) = 1.3641 [0.2926] Vector normality Chiý(10)= 10.309 [0.4138] NOTE: CAN ONLY TEST FOR AR(1) ERRORS IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION STABLE DROP LAGS OF ALL EXOGENOUS VARIABLES EQ( 2) Estimating the unrestricted reduced form by OLS The present sample is: 1950 to 1994 URF Equation 1 for dlprison Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob dlprison_1 1.1325 0.24326 4.656 0.0001 dlprison_2 -0.42988 0.23916 -1.797 0.0860 dlmurder_1 0.025273 0.12076 0.209 0.8361 dlmurder_2 0.11755 0.12525 0.939 0.3582 dlassaul_1 -0.065277 0.13774 -0.474 0.6402 dlassaul_2 -0.053535 0.13311 -0.402 0.6914 dlrape_1 -0.036504 0.067910 -0.538 0.5963 dlrape_2 0.0036488 0.075341 0.048 0.9618 dlrob_1 0.046499 0.069785 0.666 0.5121 dlrob_2 -0.064478 0.059076 -1.091 0.2869 dlp1 -0.044787 0.11198 -0.400 0.6931 dlp2 -0.16853 0.17766 -0.949 0.3531 dlp3 0.17141 0.19002 0.902 0.3768 dlp4 0.023809 0.42579 0.056 0.9559 dlinc -0.093402 0.35429 -0.264 0.7945 dlwel1 -0.018917 0.085768 -0.221 0.8275 dlwel2 -0.037970 0.23545 -0.161 0.8734 dlue 0.013053 0.041194 0.317 0.7543 dlexec1 0.0011246 0.0061537 0.183 0.8567 dlnw 0.44624 0.82594 0.540 0.5944 dcrack 0.0088355 0.011628 0.760 0.4554 ddum77 0.014394 0.020555 0.700 0.4911 Constant 0.011825 0.012864 0.919 0.3680 å = 0.0168724 RSS = 0.006262899617 URF Equation 2 for dlmurder Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob dlprison_1 -1.2849 0.63238 -2.032 0.0544 dlprison_2 0.47427 0.62174 0.763 0.4537 dlmurder_1 -0.10816 0.31392 -0.345 0.7337 dlmurder_2 -0.15629 0.32560 -0.480 0.6360 dlassaul_1 -0.38867 0.35808 -1.085 0.2895 dlassaul_2 0.0021205 0.34604 0.006 0.9952 dlrape_1 0.21663 0.17654 1.227 0.2328 dlrape_2 0.36496 0.19586 1.863 0.0758 dlrob_1 0.046593 0.18142 0.257 0.7997 dlrob_2 0.028442 0.15358 0.185 0.8548 dlp1 -0.072841 0.29112 -0.250 0.8047 dlp2 0.28434 0.46187 0.616 0.5445 dlp3 0.15195 0.49400 0.308 0.7613 dlp4 -0.11980 1.1069 -0.108 0.9148 dlinc 0.37782 0.92102 0.410 0.6856 dlwel1 0.32552 0.22297 1.460 0.1584 dlwel2 -0.73617 0.61210 -1.203 0.2419 dlue 0.066743 0.10709 0.623 0.5395 dlexec1 -0.0091861 0.015997 -0.574 0.5716 dlnw 0.93028 2.1472 0.433 0.6690 dcrack 0.089053 0.030229 2.946 0.0075 ddum77 0.046711 0.053435 0.874 0.3915 Constant 0.0067538 0.033442 0.202 0.8418 å = 0.0438625 RSS = 0.04232623943 URF Equation 3 for dlassaul Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob dlprison_1 -0.16245 0.50866 -0.319 0.7525 dlprison_2 -0.055670 0.50010 -0.111 0.9124 dlmurder_1 0.032635 0.25250 0.129 0.8983 dlmurder_2 0.062709 0.26189 0.239 0.8130 dlassaul_1 -0.42410 0.28802 -1.472 0.1551 dlassaul_2 0.010546 0.27834 0.038 0.9701 dlrape_1 0.036947 0.14200 0.260 0.7971 dlrape_2 0.29554 0.15754 1.876 0.0740 dlrob_1 0.060523 0.14592 0.415 0.6823 dlrob_2 -0.18103 0.12353 -1.465 0.1569 dlp1 0.42633 0.23416 1.821 0.0823 dlp2 0.59798 0.37150 1.610 0.1217 dlp3 0.30230 0.39735 0.761 0.4549 dlp4 -0.24863 0.89036 -0.279 0.7827 dlinc 1.7284 0.74083 2.333 0.0292 dlwel1 0.10024 0.17934 0.559 0.5819 dlwel2 -1.0483 0.49234 -2.129 0.0447 dlue 0.18877 0.086139 2.191 0.0393 dlexec1 -0.0091355 0.012868 -0.710 0.4852 dlnw 1.4384 1.7271 0.833 0.4139 dcrack 0.075468 0.024315 3.104 0.0052 ddum77 0.021613 0.042981 0.503 0.6201 Constant 0.028866 0.026899 1.073 0.2949 å = 0.0352809 RSS = 0.02738433783 URF Equation 4 for dlrape Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob dlprison_1 -0.81409 0.80335 -1.013 0.3219 dlprison_2 1.6632 0.78984 2.106 0.0469 dlmurder_1 0.24989 0.39880 0.627 0.5374 dlmurder_2 -0.77845 0.41363 -1.882 0.0731 dlassaul_1 -0.26279 0.45489 -0.578 0.5693 dlassaul_2 0.15933 0.43960 0.362 0.7205 dlrape_1 0.073884 0.22428 0.329 0.7449 dlrape_2 -0.0047977 0.24882 -0.019 0.9848 dlrob_1 0.42840 0.23047 1.859 0.0765 dlrob_2 0.37433 0.19510 1.919 0.0681 dlp1 0.44168 0.36983 1.194 0.2451 dlp2 0.26057 0.58674 0.444 0.6613 dlp3 1.5469 0.62756 2.465 0.0220 dlp4 -1.1466 1.4062 -0.815 0.4236 dlinc -1.1019 1.1700 -0.942 0.3565 dlwel1 -0.48544 0.28325 -1.714 0.1006 dlwel2 1.2554 0.77759 1.615 0.1207 dlue -0.21214 0.13605 -1.559 0.1332 dlexec1 0.0015585 0.020323 0.077 0.9396 dlnw -4.4047 2.7277 -1.615 0.1206 dcrack 0.026419 0.038402 0.688 0.4987 ddum77 0.062009 0.067882 0.913 0.3709 Constant 0.039461 0.042484 0.929 0.3630 å = 0.0557213 RSS = 0.06830697675 URF Equation 5 for dlrob Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob dlprison_1 -2.5868 0.85704 -3.018 0.0063 dlprison_2 0.37878 0.84262 0.450 0.6574 dlmurder_1 0.083911 0.42545 0.197 0.8455 dlmurder_2 0.028849 0.44127 0.065 0.9485 dlassaul_1 -0.49908 0.48529 -1.028 0.3149 dlassaul_2 -0.17451 0.46898 -0.372 0.7134 dlrape_1 -0.081905 0.23926 -0.342 0.7354 dlrape_2 0.52257 0.26544 1.969 0.0617 dlrob_1 -0.10473 0.24587 -0.426 0.6743 dlrob_2 -0.073559 0.20814 -0.353 0.7271 dlp1 0.20800 0.39454 0.527 0.6033 dlp2 1.1683 0.62595 1.866 0.0754 dlp3 0.13745 0.66950 0.205 0.8392 dlp4 1.3899 1.5002 0.926 0.3642 dlinc 0.23895 1.2482 0.191 0.8499 dlwel1 0.52740 0.30218 1.745 0.0949 dlwel2 -1.7938 0.82955 -2.162 0.0417 dlue 0.27513 0.14514 1.896 0.0712 dlexec1 -0.0096719 0.021681 -0.446 0.6599 dlnw 0.84312 2.9100 0.290 0.7747 dcrack 0.12278 0.040968 2.997 0.0066 ddum77 0.032996 0.072419 0.456 0.6531 Constant 0.11607 0.045323 2.561 0.0178 å = 0.0594451 RSS = 0.07774191537 correlation of URF residuals dlprison dlmurder dlassaul dlrape dlrob dlprison 1.000 dlmurder -0.4120 1.0000 dlassaul -0.2775 0.7561 1.000 dlrape -0.1598 0.6092 0.3998 1.000 dlrob -0.2350 0.5944 0.6135 0.2943 1.0000 standard deviations of URF residuals dlprison dlmurder dlassaul dlrape dlrob 0.01687 0.04386 0.03528 0.05572 0.05945 loglik = 859.0824 log|ê| = -38.1814 |ê| = 2.61825e-017 T = 45 log|Y'Y/T| = -31.7781 Rý(LR) = 0.998344 Rý(LM) = 0.655753 F-test against unrestricted regressors, F(110, 92) = 2.278 [0.0000] ** variables entered unrestricted: Constant F-tests on retained regressors, F(5, 18) dlprison_1 5.42671 [0.0032] ** dlprison_2 1.50472 [0.2376] dlmurder_1 0.317790 [0.8958] dlmurder_2 0.945775 [0.4757] dlassaul_1 0.511566 [0.7640] dlassaul_2 0.114217 [0.9877] dlrape_1 0.693335 [0.6351] dlrape_2 1.24608 [0.3291] dlrob_1 0.952512 [0.4719] dlrob_2 1.92567 [0.1398] dlp1 2.42557 [0.0756] dlp2 1.04254 [0.4233] dlp3 1.66057 [0.1951] dlp4 0.468216 [0.7949] dlinc 2.03337 [0.1222] dlwel1 2.72352 [0.0530] dlwel2 2.40353 [0.0776] dlue 2.20518 [0.0989] dlexec1 0.124538 [0.9850] dlnw 1.19935 [0.3488] dcrack 3.01360 [0.0378] * ddum77 0.377034 [0.8579] correlation of actual and fitted dlprison dlmurder dlassaul dlrape dlrob 0.9558 0.8183 0.8042 0.7342 0.8904 Progress to date system T p log-likelihood Schwarz Hannan-Quinn 2 45 115 OLS 859.08240 -28.45 -31.35 1 45 165 OLS 934.11111 -27.56 -31.71 Tests of model reduction System 1 --> System 2: F(50, 39) = 0.85876 [0.6967] dlprison: Portmanteau 6 lags= 20.648 dlmurder: Portmanteau 6 lags= 7.3092 dlassaul: Portmanteau 6 lags= 13.015 dlrape : Portmanteau 6 lags= 9.0916 dlrob : Portmanteau 6 lags= 12.971 dlprison: AR 1- 2F( 2, 20) = 12.971 [0.0002] ** dlmurder: AR 1- 2F( 2, 20) = 4.7468 [0.0206] * dlassaul: AR 1- 2F( 2, 20) = 5.9922 [0.0091] ** dlrape : AR 1- 2F( 2, 20) = 0.21258 [0.8103] dlrob : AR 1- 2F( 2, 20) = 0.23453 [0.7931] dlprison: Normality Chiý(2)= 0.013402 [0.9933] dlmurder: Normality Chiý(2)= 0.25715 [0.8793] dlassaul: Normality Chiý(2)= 4.2404 [0.1200] dlrape : Normality Chiý(2)= 0.090939 [0.9555] dlrob : Normality Chiý(2)= 0.6239 [0.7320] dlprison: ARCH 1 F( 1, 20) = 1.0552 [0.3166] dlmurder: ARCH 1 F( 1, 20) = 0.74711 [0.3976] dlassaul: ARCH 1 F( 1, 20) = 0.013966 [0.9071] dlrape : ARCH 1 F( 1, 20) = 0.62247 [0.4394] dlrob : ARCH 1 F( 1, 20) = 0.0047159 [0.9459] Vector portmanteau 6 lags= 186.29 Vector AR 1-2 F(50, 39) = 1.5171 [0.0897] Vector normality Chiý(10)= 6.8894 [0.7358] NOTE: AR(2) TEST ALMOST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE RESPONSE STABLE DROP ALL EXOGENOUS VARIABLES (VANILLA VAR) EQ( 3) Estimating the unrestricted reduced form by OLS The present sample is: 1950 to 1994 URF Equation 1 for dlprison Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob dlprison_1 1.3585 0.16155 8.410 0.0000 dlprison_2 -0.44512 0.18121 -2.456 0.0193 dlmurder_1 0.080774 0.097461 0.829 0.4130 dlmurder_2 0.13588 0.10200 1.332 0.1916 dlassaul_1 -0.060093 0.10062 -0.597 0.5543 dlassaul_2 -0.012732 0.10418 -0.122 0.9035 dlrape_1 -0.025824 0.055613 -0.464 0.6454 dlrape_2 -0.0058433 0.056657 -0.103 0.9185 dlrob_1 0.038320 0.049733 0.771 0.4463 dlrob_2 -0.096727 0.045092 -2.145 0.0392 Constant 0.0072156 0.0065638 1.099 0.2794 å = 0.01614 RSS = 0.00885699562 URF Equation 2 for dlmurder Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob dlprison_1 -1.0331 0.45191 -2.286 0.0286 dlprison_2 0.81659 0.50693 1.611 0.1165 dlmurder_1 0.059137 0.27264 0.217 0.8296 dlmurder_2 -0.25864 0.28533 -0.906 0.3711 dlassaul_1 0.071872 0.28148 0.255 0.8000 dlassaul_2 0.33081 0.29143 1.135 0.2643 dlrape_1 0.24406 0.15557 1.569 0.1260 dlrape_2 0.21642 0.15849 1.365 0.1811 dlrob_1 0.052090 0.13912 0.374 0.7104 dlrob_2 0.044759 0.12614 0.355 0.7249 Constant -0.017356 0.018362 -0.945 0.3512 å = 0.0451506 RSS = 0.0693117054 URF Equation 3 for dlassaul Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob dlprison_1 -0.36814 0.40179 -0.916 0.3660 dlprison_2 0.20654 0.45070 0.458 0.6497 dlmurder_1 -0.056632 0.24240 -0.234 0.8167 dlmurder_2 -0.19042 0.25368 -0.751 0.4580 dlassaul_1 0.10006 0.25026 0.400 0.6918 dlassaul_2 0.40582 0.25910 1.566 0.1265 dlrape_1 0.15816 0.13832 1.143 0.2608 dlrape_2 0.16473 0.14091 1.169 0.2505 dlrob_1 0.037794 0.12369 0.306 0.7618 dlrob_2 -0.099691 0.11215 -0.889 0.3803 Constant 0.016480 0.016325 1.010 0.3199 å = 0.0401424 RSS = 0.05478803958 URF Equation 4 for dlrape Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob dlprison_1 -1.0304 0.55479 -1.857 0.0719 dlprison_2 0.72957 0.62234 1.172 0.2492 dlmurder_1 -0.21065 0.33471 -0.629 0.5333 dlmurder_2 -0.74730 0.35028 -2.133 0.0402 dlassaul_1 0.29629 0.34556 0.857 0.3972 dlassaul_2 0.47468 0.35777 1.327 0.1934 dlrape_1 0.066937 0.19099 0.350 0.7281 dlrape_2 0.23283 0.19458 1.197 0.2397 dlrob_1 0.12872 0.17080 0.754 0.4562 dlrob_2 0.26305 0.15486 1.699 0.0985 Constant -0.0010850 0.022542 -0.048 0.9619 å = 0.0554291 RSS = 0.1044611537 URF Equation 5 for dlrob Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob dlprison_1 -1.5236 0.71813 -2.122 0.0412 dlprison_2 0.83401 0.80556 1.035 0.3078 dlmurder_1 0.39086 0.43325 0.902 0.3733 dlmurder_2 0.10118 0.45341 0.223 0.8248 dlassaul_1 0.16767 0.44730 0.375 0.7101 dlassaul_2 0.10436 0.46310 0.225 0.8230 dlrape_1 0.11496 0.24722 0.465 0.6449 dlrape_2 0.40036 0.25186 1.590 0.1212 dlrob_1 -0.049312 0.22108 -0.223 0.8248 dlrob_2 -0.11961 0.20045 -0.597 0.5547 Constant 0.023112 0.029179 0.792 0.4338 å = 0.0717479 RSS = 0.1750239994 correlation of URF residuals dlprison dlmurder dlassaul dlrape dlrob dlprison 1.000 dlmurder -0.2101 1.0000 dlassaul -0.1202 0.7367 1.000 dlrape -0.1218 0.4478 0.3727 1.000 dlrob 0.06212 0.5847 0.5675 0.07481 1.000 standard deviations of URF residuals dlprison dlmurder dlassaul dlrape dlrob 0.01614 0.04515 0.04014 0.05543 0.07175 loglik = 787.8587 log|ê| = -35.0159 |ê| = 6.2054e-016 T = 45 log|Y'Y/T| = -31.7781 Rý(LR) = 0.96075 Rý(LM) = 0.342314 F-test against unrestricted regressors, F(50, 140) = 2.8987 [0.0000] ** variables entered unrestricted: Constant F-tests on retained regressors, F(5, 30) dlprison_1 14.9575 [0.0000] ** dlprison_2 1.70566 [0.1638] dlmurder_1 0.421372 [0.8301] dlmurder_2 1.02846 [0.4188] dlassaul_1 0.259899 [0.9314] dlassaul_2 0.636278 [0.6737] dlrape_1 0.551325 [0.7361] dlrape_2 0.656315 [0.6591] dlrob_1 0.309176 [0.9035] dlrob_2 1.84540 [0.1340] correlation of actual and fitted dlprison dlmurder dlassaul dlrape dlrob 0.9369 0.6774 0.5416 0.5433 0.7306 Progress to date system T p log-likelihood Schwarz Hannan-Quinn 3 45 55 OLS 787.85870 -30.36 -31.75 2 45 115 OLS 859.08240 -28.45 -31.35 1 45 165 OLS 934.11111 -27.56 -31.71 Tests of model reduction System 1 --> System 2: F(50, 39) = 0.85876 [0.6967] System 1 --> System 3: F(110, 43) = 1.1071 [0.3600] System 2 --> System 3: F(60, 88) = 1.4179 [0.0672] dlprison: Portmanteau 6 lags= 19.588 dlmurder: Portmanteau 6 lags= 1.7348 dlassaul: Portmanteau 6 lags= 4.5017 dlrape : Portmanteau 6 lags= 4.2842 dlrob : Portmanteau 6 lags= 8.9501 dlprison: AR 1- 2F( 2, 32) = 11.502 [0.0002] ** dlmurder: AR 1- 2F( 2, 32) = 0.20007 [0.8197] dlassaul: AR 1- 2F( 2, 32) = 0.033945 [0.9667] dlrape : AR 1- 2F( 2, 32) = 1.3651 [0.2698] dlrob : AR 1- 2F( 2, 32) = 0.26768 [0.7669] dlprison: Normality Chiý(2)= 1.4212 [0.4914] dlmurder: Normality Chiý(2)= 1.4561 [0.4828] dlassaul: Normality Chiý(2)= 2.6842 [0.2613] dlrape : Normality Chiý(2)= 3.1951 [0.2024] dlrob : Normality Chiý(2)= 1.5501 [0.4607] dlprison: ARCH 1 F( 1, 32) = 0.022706 [0.8812] dlmurder: ARCH 1 F( 1, 32) = 0.085541 [0.7718] dlassaul: ARCH 1 F( 1, 32) = 0.84636 [0.3645] dlrape : ARCH 1 F( 1, 32) = 0.41088 [0.5261] dlrob : ARCH 1 F( 1, 32) = 0.0073509 [0.9322] dlprison: Xiý F(20, 13) = 0.3326 [0.9867] dlmurder: Xiý F(20, 13) = 0.82672 [0.6591] dlassaul: Xiý F(20, 13) = 0.42069 [0.9603] dlrape : Xiý F(20, 13) = 0.50324 [0.9189] dlrob : Xiý F(20, 13) = 0.26256 [0.9963] Vector portmanteau 6 lags= 130.5 Vector AR 1-2 F(50, 94) = 1.0737 [0.3773] Vector normality Chiý(10)= 9.2612 [0.5075] Vector Xiý F(300, 31) = 0.14719 [1.0000] NOTE IMPROVED LM TEST FOR AUTOCORRELATION EQ( 4) Estimating the unrestricted reduced form by OLS The present sample is: 1950 to 1994 less 5 forecasts The forecast period is: 1990 to 1994 URF Equation 1 for dlprison Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob dlprison_1 1.4064 0.18332 7.672 0.0000 dlprison_2 -0.41655 0.21846 -1.907 0.0665 dlmurder_1 0.13750 0.12563 1.095 0.2827 dlmurder_2 0.15952 0.11567 1.379 0.1784 dlassaul_1 -0.079606 0.11680 -0.682 0.5009 dlassaul_2 -0.031958 0.11689 -0.273 0.7865 dlrape_1 -0.026374 0.060757 -0.434 0.6674 dlrape_2 -0.032008 0.059929 -0.534 0.5973 dlrob_1 0.043727 0.051567 0.848 0.4034 dlrob_2 -0.096786 0.047345 -2.044 0.0501 Constant 0.0078260 0.0070801 1.105 0.2781 å = 0.016417 RSS = 0.007816055193 URF Equation 2 for dlmurder Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob dlprison_1 -1.4453 0.42927 -3.367 0.0022 dlprison_2 1.1648 0.51157 2.277 0.0303 dlmurder_1 0.10839 0.29418 0.368 0.7152 dlmurder_2 -0.42542 0.27085 -1.571 0.1271 dlassaul_1 -0.074344 0.27350 -0.272 0.7877 dlassaul_2 0.48381 0.27372 1.768 0.0877 dlrape_1 0.20057 0.14228 1.410 0.1693 dlrape_2 0.29780 0.14034 2.122 0.0425 dlrob_1 0.078679 0.12075 0.652 0.5198 dlrob_2 0.087863 0.11087 0.793 0.4345 Constant -0.020289 0.016580 -1.224 0.2309 å = 0.0384438 RSS = 0.04285991868 URF Equation 3 for dlassaul Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob dlprison_1 -0.63369 0.44254 -1.432 0.1629 dlprison_2 0.49442 0.52739 0.937 0.3562 dlmurder_1 -0.051104 0.30327 -0.169 0.8674 dlmurder_2 -0.18831 0.27923 -0.674 0.5054 dlassaul_1 0.058187 0.28196 0.206 0.8379 dlassaul_2 0.37274 0.28218 1.321 0.1969 dlrape_1 0.13601 0.14667 0.927 0.3614 dlrape_2 0.19733 0.14467 1.364 0.1831 dlrob_1 0.040456 0.12449 0.325 0.7475 dlrob_2 -0.063793 0.11430 -0.558 0.5810 Constant 0.017950 0.017092 1.050 0.3023 å = 0.0396323 RSS = 0.04555077051 URF Equation 4 for dlrape Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob dlprison_1 -1.3173 0.62643 -2.103 0.0443 dlprison_2 0.99712 0.74653 1.336 0.1920 dlmurder_1 -0.24529 0.42929 -0.571 0.5721 dlmurder_2 -0.73409 0.39525 -1.857 0.0735 dlassaul_1 0.27087 0.39912 0.679 0.5027 dlassaul_2 0.42701 0.39944 1.069 0.2939 dlrape_1 0.041472 0.20762 0.200 0.8431 dlrape_2 0.27899 0.20479 1.362 0.1836 dlrob_1 0.12105 0.17622 0.687 0.4976 dlrob_2 0.29855 0.16179 1.845 0.0752 Constant 0.0015675 0.024194 0.065 0.9488 å = 0.0561007 RSS = 0.09127125143 URF Equation 5 for dlrob Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob dlprison_1 -2.0807 0.77776 -2.675 0.0121 dlprison_2 1.3765 0.92688 1.485 0.1483 dlmurder_1 0.38261 0.53300 0.718 0.4786 dlmurder_2 0.043489 0.49074 0.089 0.9300 dlassaul_1 0.035004 0.49554 0.071 0.9442 dlassaul_2 0.14678 0.49593 0.296 0.7694 dlrape_1 0.069967 0.25778 0.271 0.7880 dlrape_2 0.49194 0.25426 1.935 0.0628 dlrob_1 -0.030149 0.21879 -0.138 0.8914 dlrob_2 -0.055539 0.20087 -0.276 0.7841 Constant 0.023434 0.030039 0.780 0.4416 å = 0.0696535 RSS = 0.1406968377 correlation of URF residuals dlprison dlmurder dlassaul dlrape dlrob dlprison 1.000 dlmurder -0.1148 1.0000 dlassaul -0.04669 0.7489 1.000 dlrape -0.04188 0.4001 0.2714 1.000 dlrob 0.2009 0.4678 0.4902 -0.07796 1.0000 standard deviations of URF residuals dlprison dlmurder dlassaul dlrape dlrob 0.01642 0.03844 0.03963 0.05610 0.06965 loglik = 708.42224 log|ê| = -35.4211 |ê| = 4.13815e-016 T = 40 log|Y'Y/T| = -31.8907 Rý(LR) = 0.970706 Rý(LM) = 0.362947 F-test against unrestricted regressors, F(50, 117) = 2.7435 [0.0000] ** variables entered unrestricted: Constant F-tests on retained regressors, F(5, 25) dlprison_1 15.0098 [0.0000] ** dlprison_2 1.98765 [0.1154] dlmurder_1 0.468923 [0.7957] dlmurder_2 1.05610 [0.4077] dlassaul_1 0.388341 [0.8520] dlassaul_2 0.612967 [0.6909] dlrape_1 0.434818 [0.8199] dlrape_2 1.30019 [0.2956] dlrob_1 0.343034 [0.8818] dlrob_2 1.78498 [0.1525] correlation of actual and fitted dlprison dlmurder dlassaul dlrape dlrob 0.9354 0.7897 0.5743 0.5582 0.7740 1-step (ex post) forecast analysis 1990 to 1994 Parameter constancy forecast tests: using ê Chiý(25)= 44.262 [0.0101]* F(25,29)= 1.7705 [0.0699] using V[e] Chiý(25)= 31.568 [0.1709] F(25,29)= 1.2627 [0.2711] using V[E] Chiý(25)= 37.028 [0.0574] F(25,29)= 1.4811 [0.1540] NOTE: EXCELLENT FORECAST PARAMETER CONSTANCY TESTS. UNIT ROOT TESTS ANALYSIS IN LEVELS: NOT REPORTED ---- PcGive 8.00, copy for Carl Moody ---- ---- session started at 21:34:54 on 10th October 1996 ---- Data loaded from: restat2.in7 and restat2.bn7 Unit root tests 1951 to 1994 Critical values: 5%=-1.948 1%=-2.616 t-adf å lag t-lag t-prob lprison 1.6579 0.017040 2 -2.8622 0.0066 lprison 1.2058 0.018441 1 12.455 0.0000 lprison 5.1360 0.039483 0 lmurder 0.54243 0.048738 2 -0.086269 0.9317 lmurder 0.54313 0.048159 1 3.6406 0.0007 lmurder 1.3290 0.054591 0 lassault 2.1915 0.041404 2 1.1435 0.2595 lassault 3.2104 0.041556 1 1.7683 0.0843 lassault 6.2918 0.042571 0 lrape 1.8279 0.059496 2 0.75166 0.4565 lrape 2.3921 0.059188 1 1.6184 0.1131 lrape 3.8796 0.060292 0 lrob 1.5885 0.085103 2 -0.76552 0.4483 lrob 1.4413 0.084682 1 2.8192 0.0073 lrob 2.4530 0.091268 0 lp1 0.014096 0.028677 2 -0.074467 0.9410 lp1 0.017361 0.028335 1 3.7588 0.0005 lp1 -0.080314 0.032373 0 lp2 -0.15451 0.011497 2 0.64712 0.5212 lp2 -0.15950 0.011417 1 12.334 0.0000 lp2 -0.52836 0.024259 0 lp3 -0.29525 0.0099524 2 0.96150 0.3419 lp3 -0.23596 0.0099434 1 13.031 0.0000 lp3 0.029506 0.022068 0 lp4 0.35342 0.0085961 2 1.4099 0.1661 lp4 0.37472 0.0086966 1 13.043 0.0000 lp4 0.96910 0.019315 0 linc 2.7174 0.022232 2 -0.37909 0.7066 linc 2.8794 0.022004 1 2.1891 0.0342 linc 5.1401 0.022954 0 lwel1 -0.57705 0.064535 2 0.35067 0.7276 lwel1 -0.65112 0.063857 1 5.9794 0.0000 lwel1 -1.5911 0.085869 0 lwel2 2.1306 0.035308 2 0.42399 0.6738 lwel2 2.4458 0.034962 1 3.5141 0.0011 lwel2 5.6965 0.039306 0 lue -0.030007 0.19838 2 -1.9571 0.0572 lue -0.27606 0.20495 1 0.081758 0.9352 lue -0.27388 0.20257 0 lexec1 -0.94456 0.50685 2 2.3296 0.0248 lexec1 -0.91754 0.53289 1 -1.6521 0.1060 lexec1 -0.95727 0.54350 0 lexec2 -0.98795 0.51240 2 2.3179 0.0255 lexec2 -0.97930 0.53841 1 -1.3251 0.1923 lexec2 -1.0058 0.54313 0 dlprison -0.37004 0.014342 2 -4.5559 0.0000 dlprison -1.5092 0.017391 1 2.6193 0.0122 dlprison -0.85934 0.018538 0 dlmurder -3.2639** 0.048422 2 0.91385 0.3661 dlmurder -3.1961** 0.048327 1 0.035287 0.9720 dlmurder -3.6158** 0.047762 0 dlassaul -1.8003 0.043762 2 -0.0013344 0.9989 dlassaul -1.8984 0.043238 1 -2.5129 0.0159 dlassaul -3.1127** 0.045832 0 dlrape -2.2530* 0.061745 2 -0.41270 0.6820 dlrape -2.5855* 0.061132 1 -1.6535 0.1057 dlrape -3.9698** 0.062353 0 dlrob -3.0699** 0.087681 2 -0.038383 0.9696 dlrob -3.5466** 0.086632 1 0.33961 0.7358 dlrob -3.9964** 0.085737 0 dlp1 -3.5999** 0.028218 2 1.1593 0.2530 dlp1 -3.4133** 0.028334 1 0.076016 0.9398 dlp1 -3.8741** 0.028004 0 dlp2 -1.4771 0.011501 2 0.019980 0.9842 dlp2 -1.5289 0.011363 1 -0.65572 0.5156 dlp2 -1.7429 0.011287 0 dlp3 -1.0920 0.0099628 2 0.033432 0.9735 dlp3 -1.1272 0.0098436 1 -0.95537 0.3449 dlp3 -1.4228 0.0098336 0 dlp4 -1.0518 0.0086070 2 -0.14467 0.8857 dlp4 -1.1093 0.0085061 1 -1.4316 0.1597 dlp4 -1.4725 0.0086092 0 dlinc -2.1028* 0.023311 2 -1.7344 0.0904 dlinc -2.9785** 0.023862 1 -0.87466 0.3867 dlinc -3.9431** 0.023797 0 dlwel1 -1.5811 0.060618 2 -2.4181 0.0201 dlwel1 -2.4385* 0.064020 1 -0.45650 0.6504 dlwel1 -2.8035** 0.063428 0 dlwel2 -1.3474 0.033163 2 -3.2594 0.0022 dlwel2 -2.3029* 0.036766 1 -1.1782 0.2454 dlwel2 -2.8356** 0.036932 0 dlue -5.7120** 0.19226 2 1.6290 0.1110 dlue -6.2115** 0.19600 1 2.0015 0.0518 dlue -6.4952** 0.20274 0 dlexec1 -1.9978* 0.46871 2 -2.8259 0.0073 dlexec1 -3.6210** 0.50620 1 -2.3408 0.0241 dlexec1 -8.5020** 0.53191 0 dlexec2 -2.0059* 0.47703 2 -2.7260 0.0094 dlexec2 -3.5550** 0.51225 1 -2.3364 0.0243 dlexec2 -8.0723** 0.53816 0 lnw 4.4434 0.0047700 2 0.61383 0.5427 lnw 5.7738 0.0047345 1 0.88659 0.3803 lnw 15.361 0.0047227 0 dlnw -0.57940 0.0055936 2 -1.7813 0.0823 dlnw -0.94121 0.0057365 1 -3.0524 0.0039 dlnw -1.7475 0.0062668 0 ---- PcFiml 8.00, copy for Carl Moody ---- ---- session started at 9:09:31 on 6th October 1996 ---- Data loaded from: restat2.in7 and restat2.bn7 EQ( 1) Estimating the unrestricted reduced form by OLS The present sample is: 1949 to 1993 URF Equation 1 for lprison Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob lprison_1 0.60443 0.29834 2.026 0.0677 lprison_2 -0.39897 0.37150 -1.074 0.3058 lmurder_1 -0.0090643 0.14575 -0.062 0.9515 lmurder_2 0.048550 0.15892 0.306 0.7657 lassault_1 -0.32979 0.20131 -1.638 0.1296 lassault_2 0.084167 0.18168 0.463 0.6522 lrape_1 -0.13519 0.095380 -1.417 0.1841 lrape_2 0.030186 0.087114 0.347 0.7355 lrob_1 0.026739 0.083551 0.320 0.7549 lrob_2 -0.097102 0.082340 -1.179 0.2632 crack 0.017324 0.0098155 1.765 0.1053 prjdum 0.024183 0.027233 0.888 0.3935 lp1 0.19687 0.13885 1.418 0.1839 lp1_1 -0.048233 0.14066 -0.343 0.7381 lp2 1.1505 0.57350 2.006 0.0701 lp2_1 -1.4874 0.62173 -2.392 0.0357 lp3 0.24011 0.44807 0.536 0.6027 lp3_1 0.34445 0.39097 0.881 0.3972 lp4 1.2827 0.56700 2.262 0.0449 lp4_1 -0.44305 0.50046 -0.885 0.3949 lnw -0.63694 0.91612 -0.695 0.5013 lnw_1 2.2271 1.0173 2.189 0.0510 linc -0.092506 0.36761 -0.252 0.8060 linc_1 0.12220 0.41199 0.297 0.7723 lwel1 0.26442 0.12969 2.039 0.0662 lwel1_1 -0.027101 0.089408 -0.303 0.7675 lwel2 -0.27273 0.28945 -0.942 0.3663 lwel2_1 -0.044880 0.18492 -0.243 0.8127 lue 0.038386 0.044638 0.860 0.4082 lue_1 0.029125 0.048346 0.602 0.5591 lexec1 -0.0037475 0.010684 -0.351 0.7324 lexec1_1 -0.0088732 0.0089427 -0.992 0.3424 Constant -1.3601 2.3582 -0.577 0.5757 Trend 0.013114 0.015490 0.847 0.4153 å = 0.0106924 RSS = 0.001257599363 URF Equation 2 for lmurder Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob lprison_1 -0.88517 1.0997 -0.805 0.4379 lprison_2 0.69233 1.3694 0.506 0.6231 lmurder_1 0.097601 0.53726 0.182 0.8591 lmurder_2 0.17853 0.58579 0.305 0.7662 lassault_1 -0.72303 0.74206 -0.974 0.3508 lassault_2 -0.12657 0.66971 -0.189 0.8535 lrape_1 0.30957 0.35158 0.881 0.3974 lrape_2 0.23290 0.32111 0.725 0.4834 lrob_1 0.17314 0.30798 0.562 0.5853 lrob_2 -0.082918 0.30351 -0.273 0.7898 crack 0.068411 0.036181 1.891 0.0853 prjdum 0.048260 0.10038 0.481 0.6401 lp1 -0.54562 0.51181 -1.066 0.3092 lp1_1 0.48218 0.51848 0.930 0.3723 lp2 -1.2840 2.1140 -0.607 0.5559 lp2_1 1.3340 2.2918 0.582 0.5722 lp3 -0.085454 1.6516 -0.052 0.9597 lp3_1 -0.35891 1.4412 -0.249 0.8079 lp4 0.016377 2.0900 0.008 0.9939 lp4_1 -0.70660 1.8447 -0.383 0.7090 lnw 2.4064 3.3769 0.713 0.4909 lnw_1 0.87166 3.7497 0.232 0.8204 linc 0.72071 1.3550 0.532 0.6054 linc_1 1.6597 1.5186 1.093 0.2978 lwel1 0.42868 0.47804 0.897 0.3891 lwel1_1 -0.14691 0.32957 -0.446 0.6644 lwel2 -1.0313 1.0670 -0.967 0.3545 lwel2_1 -0.15930 0.68165 -0.234 0.8195 lue 0.10318 0.16454 0.627 0.5434 lue_1 0.11216 0.17821 0.629 0.5420 lexec1 -0.022179 0.039383 -0.563 0.5846 lexec1_1 -0.010966 0.032964 -0.333 0.7456 Constant -0.97724 8.6926 -0.112 0.9125 Trend -0.037645 0.057099 -0.659 0.5233 å = 0.0394132 RSS = 0.01708744354 URF Equation 3 for lassault Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob lprison_1 0.14814 0.68356 0.217 0.8324 lprison_2 -0.55844 0.85118 -0.656 0.5253 lmurder_1 0.22699 0.33394 0.680 0.5107 lmurder_2 0.087245 0.36411 0.240 0.8150 lassault_1 -0.55289 0.46125 -1.199 0.2558 lassault_2 0.10292 0.41627 0.247 0.8093 lrape_1 0.025012 0.21853 0.114 0.9109 lrape_2 0.079748 0.19959 0.400 0.6971 lrob_1 0.034809 0.19143 0.182 0.8590 lrob_2 -0.27091 0.18866 -1.436 0.1788 crack 0.046830 0.022489 2.082 0.0614 prjdum 0.035253 0.062395 0.565 0.5834 lp1 0.31646 0.31813 0.995 0.3412 lp1_1 0.26272 0.32227 0.815 0.4323 lp2 -0.32961 1.3140 -0.251 0.8066 lp2_1 0.58291 1.4245 0.409 0.6902 lp3 -0.58069 1.0266 -0.566 0.5830 lp3_1 0.53958 0.89579 0.602 0.5591 lp4 -0.021678 1.2991 -0.017 0.9870 lp4_1 0.042698 1.1466 0.037 0.9710 lnw 2.2392 2.0990 1.067 0.3089 lnw_1 2.9751 2.3307 1.276 0.2281 linc 1.8061 0.84226 2.144 0.0552 linc_1 0.91323 0.94394 0.967 0.3541 lwel1 0.41445 0.29714 1.395 0.1906 lwel1_1 -0.028995 0.20485 -0.142 0.8900 lwel2 -1.0707 0.66319 -1.614 0.1347 lwel2_1 -0.46600 0.42370 -1.100 0.2949 lue 0.16501 0.10227 1.613 0.1349 lue_1 0.039173 0.11077 0.354 0.7303 lexec1 -0.010598 0.024480 -0.433 0.6734 lexec1_1 -0.0088180 0.020489 -0.430 0.6752 Constant -5.9811 5.4031 -1.107 0.2919 Trend -0.0079939 0.035491 -0.225 0.8259 å = 0.0244983 RSS = 0.006601817606 URF Equation 4 for lrape Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob lprison_1 -0.87608 1.3767 -0.636 0.5376 lprison_2 2.9216 1.7143 1.704 0.1164 lmurder_1 0.31006 0.67257 0.461 0.6538 lmurder_2 -0.40609 0.73333 -0.554 0.5908 lassault_1 -1.6871 0.92896 -1.816 0.0967 lassault_2 -0.29710 0.83838 -0.354 0.7298 lrape_1 -0.0029231 0.44013 -0.007 0.9948 lrape_2 0.15662 0.40199 0.390 0.7043 lrob_1 0.61887 0.38554 1.605 0.1368 lrob_2 0.34207 0.37996 0.900 0.3872 crack 0.0085378 0.045293 0.188 0.8539 prjdum 0.036116 0.12566 0.287 0.7792 lp1 0.29042 0.64071 0.453 0.6592 lp1_1 0.16673 0.64906 0.257 0.8020 lp2 2.4539 2.6464 0.927 0.3737 lp2_1 -2.3239 2.8690 -0.810 0.4351 lp3 2.9445 2.0676 1.424 0.1822 lp3_1 -0.26824 1.8041 -0.149 0.8845 lp4 -0.39136 2.6164 -0.150 0.8838 lp4_1 0.043011 2.3094 0.019 0.9855 lnw -3.2230 4.2274 -0.762 0.4619 lnw_1 -0.41765 4.6941 -0.089 0.9307 linc -0.38144 1.6963 -0.225 0.8262 linc_1 3.7029 1.9011 1.948 0.0774 lwel1 0.22390 0.59844 0.374 0.7154 lwel1_1 -0.50570 0.41257 -1.226 0.2459 lwel2 0.25375 1.3357 0.190 0.8528 lwel2_1 0.0099739 0.85333 0.012 0.9909 lue 0.037801 0.20598 0.184 0.8577 lue_1 0.31792 0.22309 1.425 0.1819 lexec1 -0.085716 0.049302 -1.739 0.1100 lexec1_1 -0.074128 0.041266 -1.796 0.0999 Constant -4.4978 10.882 -0.413 0.6873 Trend -0.0013141 0.071480 -0.018 0.9857 å = 0.0493398 RSS = 0.02677857853 URF Equation 5 for lrob Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob lprison_1 -1.3641 1.1186 -1.219 0.2482 lprison_2 0.52116 1.3929 0.374 0.7154 lmurder_1 0.0093528 0.54646 0.017 0.9867 lmurder_2 -0.079125 0.59583 -0.133 0.8968 lassault_1 -0.89840 0.75478 -1.190 0.2590 lassault_2 0.050865 0.68118 0.075 0.9418 lrape_1 -0.047707 0.35760 -0.133 0.8963 lrape_2 0.35952 0.32661 1.101 0.2945 lrob_1 0.45273 0.31325 1.445 0.1763 lrob_2 -0.081028 0.30871 -0.262 0.7978 crack 0.018221 0.036801 0.495 0.6303 prjdum 0.0039232 0.10210 0.038 0.9700 lp1 0.17122 0.52058 0.329 0.7484 lp1_1 -0.20994 0.52736 -0.398 0.6982 lp2 -0.13486 2.1502 -0.063 0.9511 lp2_1 0.071809 2.3310 0.031 0.9760 lp3 -0.53362 1.6799 -0.318 0.7567 lp3_1 0.65439 1.4659 0.446 0.6640 lp4 0.30076 2.1258 0.141 0.8900 lp4_1 0.17801 1.8764 0.095 0.9261 lnw 1.9992 3.4348 0.582 0.5723 lnw_1 5.0032 3.8139 1.312 0.2163 linc 0.22068 1.3783 0.160 0.8757 linc_1 1.3335 1.5446 0.863 0.4064 lwel1 0.90176 0.48623 1.855 0.0906 lwel1_1 -0.40140 0.33521 -1.197 0.2563 lwel2 -1.4764 1.0852 -1.360 0.2009 lwel2_1 0.65003 0.69333 0.938 0.3686 lue 0.19215 0.16736 1.148 0.2753 lue_1 -0.19648 0.18126 -1.084 0.3016 lexec1 -0.036208 0.040058 -0.904 0.3854 lexec1_1 -0.034028 0.033528 -1.015 0.3320 Constant -7.6605 8.8415 -0.866 0.4048 Trend -0.037360 0.058077 -0.643 0.5332 å = 0.0400885 RSS = 0.01767795981 correlation of URF residuals lprison lmurder lassault lrape lrob lprison 1.0000 lmurder -0.4956 1.0000 lassault -0.4140 0.7793 1.0000 lrape -0.3173 0.7150 0.6328 1.0000 lrob -0.3850 0.8247 0.6175 0.5605 1.0000 standard deviations of URF residuals lprison lmurder lassault lrape lrob 0.01069 0.03941 0.02450 0.04934 0.04009 loglik = 1025.5179 log|ê| = -45.5786 |ê| = 1.60501e-020 T = 45 log|Y'Y/T| = -25.1749 Rý(LR) = 1 Rý(LM) = 0.952669 F-test against unrestricted regressors, F(160, 39) = 15.089 [0.0000] ** variables entered unrestricted: Constant Trend F-tests on retained regressors, F(5, 7) lprison_1 0.951729 [0.5041] lprison_2 1.21275 [0.3931] lmurder_1 0.115420 [0.9849] lmurder_2 0.296912 [0.9000] lassault_1 1.25698 [0.3771] lassault_2 0.129637 [0.9806] lrape_1 0.760388 [0.6055] lrape_2 0.249174 [0.9274] lrob_1 0.934094 [0.5127] lrob_2 1.36268 [0.3418] crack 2.96854 [0.0943] prjdum 0.327981 [0.8810] lp1 2.29711 [0.1542] lp1_1 0.732144 [0.6219] lp2 1.05499 [0.4566] lp2_1 1.20214 [0.3970] lp3 0.786676 [0.5905] lp3_1 0.513824 [0.7594] lp4 0.889556 [0.5351] lp4_1 0.356465 [0.8631] lnw 0.659735 [0.6656] lnw_1 1.92922 [0.2075] linc 1.27009 [0.3725] linc_1 0.601804 [0.7021] lwel1 1.87306 [0.2176] lwel1_1 0.602084 [0.7019] lwel2 1.18184 [0.4047] lwel2_1 0.839906 [0.5612] lue 0.969655 [0.4955] lue_1 1.45132 [0.3151] lexec1 0.661570 [0.6645] lexec1_1 1.08502 [0.4437] correlation of actual and fitted lprison lmurder lassault lrape lrob 0.9999 0.9977 0.9998 0.9993 0.9996 Vector portmanteau statistic for 6 lags and 45 observations: 220.9 Testing for vector error autocorrelation from lags 1 to 1 Chiý(25) = 126.09 [0.0000] ** and F-Form(25, 8) = 1.4096 [0.3191] Vector normality test for residuals The present sample is: 1949 to 1993 Skewness -1.338 -2.057 -1.389 0.3855 -0.01209 Excess kurtosis 0.04862 0.3922 0.8255 -0.7667 -0.4347 Vector normality Chiý(10)= 9.7134 [0.4660] Cointegration analysis 1949 to 1993 eigenvalue æi loglik for rank 777.450 0 0.96475 852.720 1 0.905139 905.715 2 0.890114 955.402 3 0.857157 999.187 4 0.689713 1025.52 5 6.67014e-014 --- 4.54107e-014 --- 2.02135e-014 --- 9.32315e-015 --- 5.9718e-015 --- 3.12808e-015 --- 1.77767e-015 --- 1.61404e-015 --- 1.03544e-015 --- 2.97832e-016 --- 1.48138e-016 --- 2.61878e-017 --- -2.91302e-016 --- -9.8624e-016 --- -1.42263e-015 --- -1.70662e-015 --- -2.58953e-015 --- -4.68585e-015 --- -6.32998e-015 --- -9.26105e-015 --- -2.54356e-014 --- -8.43448e-014 --- Ho:rank=p -Tlog(1-æ) using T-nm 95% -Tälg(1-æ) using T-nm 95% p == 0 150.5** 117.1** 36.4 496.1** 385.9** 77.7 p <= 1 106** 82.44** 30.3 345.6** 268.8** 54.6 p <= 2 99.37** 77.29** 23.8 239.6** 186.4** 34.6 p <= 3 87.57** 68.11** 16.9 140.2** 109.1** 18.2 p <= 4 52.66** 40.96** 3.7 52.66** 40.96** 3.7 standardized á' eigenvectors lprison lmurder lassault lrape lrob crack 1.000 -0.5076 0.5108 0.01752 0.6244 0.002232 -13.13 1.000 -10.46 2.125 -1.824 0.7251 -8.599 -3.410 1.000 0.2311 0.3924 0.2264 -0.7776 -0.7544 1.232 1.000 -0.3168 0.02775 1.262 -1.663 -2.256 0.03355 1.000 0.08611 prjdum lp1 lp1_1 lp2 lp2_1 lp3 0.005095 -0.5570 0.2987 -0.5773 0.6482 0.7314 0.6307 1.561 3.897 0.3999 -1.609 -6.412 0.2887 -0.9705 -0.1634 10.59 -15.63 4.828 -0.005112 -0.9271 0.2736 -3.118 3.156 -1.710 0.09037 -0.7700 0.5105 1.320 -1.640 3.309 lp3_1 lp4 lp4_1 lnw lnw_1 linc -0.9268 -0.5846 -0.3603 -0.9209 -4.350 -0.5172 4.825 12.83 -7.516 19.11 32.34 16.66 0.5055 15.58 -7.903 -9.153 16.32 -6.825 -0.6230 -0.4181 -0.4823 3.404 -1.740 0.1667 -0.9327 0.5940 -1.340 -1.175 1.517 -1.240 linc_1 lwel1 lwel1_1 lwel2 lwel2_1 lue 0.09521 -0.5128 0.1163 0.8436 -0.2395 -0.1311 2.147 3.730 1.553 -10.12 -7.548 1.315 2.515 2.740 -0.6406 -1.982 1.064 0.06102 -1.285 -0.1247 0.2319 -0.3947 0.01318 -0.03267 6.092 1.075 -0.9343 -1.134 0.6069 0.1384 lue_1 lexec1 lexec1_1 0.1785 0.005364 0.01218 1.174 0.1075 0.07661 0.5036 -0.06219 -0.09498 -0.1061 0.04118 0.04613 0.3666 -0.1300 -0.1042 standardized à coefficients lprison -0.1183 0.01506 0.06307 -0.1481 -0.04070 lmurder -0.05544 0.04721 -0.04207 0.4406 0.3670 lassault -0.3764 0.07446 -0.08370 -0.03277 0.1572 lrape 0.4603 0.009658 -0.05593 -0.8766 0.4354 lrob -1.391 -0.01755 -0.02129 0.3672 0.3331 long-run matrix Po=àá', rank 5 lprison lmurder lassault lrape lrob crack lprison -0.7945 0.03949 -0.2456 -0.1050 -0.07036 0.01732 lmurder -0.1928 -0.7239 -0.8496 0.5425 0.09022 0.06841 lassault -0.4103 0.3142 -1.450 0.1048 -0.2361 0.04683 lrape 2.046 -0.09603 -1.984 -0.8463 0.9609 0.008538 lrob -0.8429 -0.06977 -0.8475 0.3118 -0.6283 0.01822 prjdum lp1 lp1_1 lp2 lp2_1 lp3 lprison 0.02418 0.1969 -0.04823 1.150 -1.487 0.2401 lmurder 0.04826 -0.5456 0.4822 -1.284 1.334 -0.08545 lassault 0.03525 0.3165 0.2627 -0.3296 0.5829 -0.5807 lrape 0.03612 0.2904 0.1667 2.454 -2.324 2.945 lrob 0.003923 0.1712 -0.2099 -0.1349 0.07181 -0.5336 lp3_1 lp4 lp4_1 lnw lnw_1 linc lprison 0.3445 1.283 -0.4431 -0.6369 2.227 -0.09251 lmurder -0.3589 0.01638 -0.7066 2.406 0.8717 0.7207 lassault 0.5396 -0.02168 0.04270 2.239 2.975 1.806 lrape -0.2682 -0.3914 0.04301 -3.223 -0.4176 -0.3814 lrob 0.6544 0.3008 0.1780 1.999 5.003 0.2207 linc_1 lwel1 lwel1_1 lwel2 lwel2_1 lue lprison 0.1222 0.2644 -0.02710 -0.2727 -0.04488 0.03839 lmurder 1.660 0.4287 -0.1469 -1.031 -0.1593 0.1032 lassault 0.9132 0.4144 -0.02899 -1.071 -0.4660 0.1650 lrape 3.703 0.2239 -0.5057 0.2538 0.009974 0.03780 lrob 1.334 0.9018 -0.4014 -1.476 0.6500 0.1922 lue_1 lexec1 lexec1_1 lprison 0.02913 -0.003747 -0.008873 lmurder 0.1122 -0.02218 -0.01097 lassault 0.03917 -0.01060 -0.008818 lrape 0.3179 -0.08572 -0.07413 lrob -0.1965 -0.03621 -0.03403 Number of lags used in the analysis: 2 Variables entered unrestricted: Constant Trend Variables entered restricted: crack prjdum lp1 lp1_1 lp2 lp2_1 lp3 lp3_1 lp4 lp4_1 lnw lnw_1 linc linc_1 lwel1 lwel1_1 lwel2 lwel2_1 lue lue_1 lexec1 lexec1_1 DROP LAGS OF EXOGENOUS VARIABLES EQ( 2) Estimating the unrestricted reduced form by OLS The present sample is: 1949 to 1993 URF Equation 1 for lprison Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob lprison_1 1.1789 0.22338 5.277 0.0000 lprison_2 -0.36743 0.21185 -1.734 0.0975 lmurder_1 -0.15050 0.13310 -1.131 0.2709 lmurder_2 0.24026 0.12434 1.932 0.0669 lassault_1 0.033063 0.12781 0.259 0.7984 lassault_2 -0.12816 0.13305 -0.963 0.3464 lrape_1 0.026116 0.065569 0.398 0.6944 lrape_2 -0.014188 0.075839 -0.187 0.8534 lrob_1 0.080606 0.067430 1.195 0.2453 lrob_2 -0.071765 0.052341 -1.371 0.1848 crack 0.014928 0.0081922 1.822 0.0827 prjdum 0.0070237 0.020649 0.340 0.7371 lp1 -0.032420 0.097891 -0.331 0.7438 lp2 -0.10741 0.092882 -1.156 0.2605 lp3 0.27840 0.14341 1.941 0.0658 lp4 -0.10241 0.30613 -0.335 0.7413 lnw -0.20529 0.81488 -0.252 0.8035 linc -0.33277 0.34166 -0.974 0.3412 lwel1 -0.086459 0.075873 -1.140 0.2673 lwel2 0.11296 0.19584 0.577 0.5702 lue -0.015461 0.037333 -0.414 0.6830 lexec1 0.0013385 0.0074679 0.179 0.8595 Constant 1.3243 1.4087 0.940 0.3579 Trend 0.014417 0.0099900 1.443 0.1637 å = 0.012224 RSS = 0.003137945439 URF Equation 2 for lmurder Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob lprison_1 -1.3235 0.59258 -2.233 0.0365 lprison_2 0.45094 0.56199 0.802 0.4313 lmurder_1 0.37178 0.35309 1.053 0.3043 lmurder_2 -0.31067 0.32985 -0.942 0.3570 lassault_1 -0.48636 0.33905 -1.434 0.1662 lassault_2 0.18044 0.35295 0.511 0.6145 lrape_1 0.19824 0.17394 1.140 0.2672 lrape_2 0.29150 0.20118 1.449 0.1621 lrob_1 -0.050528 0.17887 -0.282 0.7803 lrob_2 0.038142 0.13885 0.275 0.7862 crack 0.067869 0.021732 3.123 0.0051 prjdum 0.074602 0.054776 1.362 0.1876 lp1 -0.13502 0.25968 -0.520 0.6085 lp2 0.039690 0.24639 0.161 0.8736 lp3 -0.17395 0.38044 -0.457 0.6522 lp4 0.099864 0.81209 0.123 0.9033 lnw 2.4706 2.1617 1.143 0.2659 linc 0.71437 0.90635 0.788 0.4394 lwel1 0.41774 0.20127 2.076 0.0504 lwel2 -0.84148 0.51951 -1.620 0.1202 lue 0.099461 0.099036 1.004 0.3267 lexec1 -0.013407 0.019810 -0.677 0.5059 Constant 1.1351 3.7371 0.304 0.7643 Trend -0.014658 0.026501 -0.553 0.5860 å = 0.0324273 RSS = 0.02208217599 URF Equation 3 for lassault Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob lprison_1 -0.18280 0.43762 -0.418 0.6804 lprison_2 -0.26946 0.41503 -0.649 0.5232 lmurder_1 0.20393 0.26075 0.782 0.4429 lmurder_2 -0.11356 0.24359 -0.466 0.6459 lassault_1 -0.27208 0.25039 -1.087 0.2895 lassault_2 0.18605 0.26065 0.714 0.4832 lrape_1 -0.017434 0.12845 -0.136 0.8933 lrape_2 0.23768 0.14857 1.600 0.1246 lrob_1 -0.0057466 0.13210 -0.044 0.9657 lrob_2 -0.18714 0.10254 -1.825 0.0823 crack 0.059186 0.016049 3.688 0.0014 prjdum 0.038888 0.040452 0.961 0.3473 lp1 0.37957 0.19177 1.979 0.0610 lp2 0.44776 0.18196 2.461 0.0226 lp3 0.13036 0.28095 0.464 0.6474 lp4 0.24966 0.59972 0.416 0.6814 lnw 1.4938 1.5964 0.936 0.3600 linc 1.6751 0.66933 2.503 0.0207 lwel1 0.25425 0.14864 1.711 0.1019 lwel2 -1.1397 0.38366 -2.971 0.0073 lue 0.18327 0.073137 2.506 0.0205 lexec1 -0.010299 0.014630 -0.704 0.4892 Constant 0.29576 2.7598 0.107 0.9157 Trend 0.024737 0.019571 1.264 0.2201 å = 0.0239473 RSS = 0.01204292075 URF Equation 4 for lrape Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob lprison_1 -0.40784 0.88348 -0.462 0.6491 lprison_2 1.0482 0.83787 1.251 0.2247 lmurder_1 0.47972 0.52642 0.911 0.3725 lmurder_2 -0.94199 0.49177 -1.915 0.0691 lassault_1 -0.25385 0.50549 -0.502 0.6208 lassault_2 0.66094 0.52622 1.256 0.2229 lrape_1 0.35530 0.25932 1.370 0.1851 lrape_2 -0.10307 0.29994 -0.344 0.7345 lrob_1 0.18669 0.26668 0.700 0.4916 lrob_2 0.20618 0.20701 0.996 0.3306 crack -0.010482 0.032400 -0.324 0.7495 prjdum 0.018742 0.081665 0.229 0.8207 lp1 0.35523 0.38716 0.918 0.3693 lp2 0.029734 0.36735 0.081 0.9363 lp3 1.0484 0.56720 1.848 0.0787 lp4 -0.47277 1.2107 -0.390 0.7001 lnw -2.7923 3.2229 -0.866 0.3961 linc -0.69878 1.3513 -0.517 0.6105 lwel1 -0.16252 0.30008 -0.542 0.5938 lwel2 1.1206 0.77454 1.447 0.1627 lue -0.11739 0.14765 -0.795 0.4355 lexec1 0.0057194 0.029535 0.194 0.8483 Constant 0.14877 5.5716 0.027 0.9789 Trend -0.00027297 0.039511 -0.007 0.9946 å = 0.0483458 RSS = 0.04908373204 URF Equation 5 for lrob Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob lprison_1 -2.6632 0.93279 -2.855 0.0095 lprison_2 -0.13627 0.88463 -0.154 0.8790 lmurder_1 0.40028 0.55579 0.720 0.4793 lmurder_2 -0.38097 0.51922 -0.734 0.4712 lassault_1 -0.58003 0.53370 -1.087 0.2894 lassault_2 0.20208 0.55559 0.364 0.7197 lrape_1 -0.060195 0.27380 -0.220 0.8281 lrape_2 0.42643 0.31668 1.347 0.1925 lrob_1 0.037155 0.28157 0.132 0.8963 lrob_2 -0.17338 0.21856 -0.793 0.4365 crack 0.096896 0.034208 2.833 0.0100 prjdum 0.17779 0.086223 2.062 0.0518 lp1 -0.072729 0.40876 -0.178 0.8605 lp2 0.71867 0.38785 1.853 0.0780 lp3 -0.28605 0.59885 -0.478 0.6378 lp4 2.4594 1.2783 1.924 0.0680 lnw 0.78353 3.4027 0.230 0.8201 linc -0.71692 1.4267 -0.503 0.6205 lwel1 0.79194 0.31682 2.500 0.0208 lwel2 -1.4504 0.81777 -1.774 0.0906 lue 0.14467 0.15589 0.928 0.3639 lexec1 -0.0025541 0.031184 -0.082 0.9355 Constant 11.009 5.8825 1.871 0.0753 Trend 0.11263 0.041716 2.700 0.0134 å = 0.0510439 RSS = 0.05471505602 correlation of URF residuals lprison lmurder lassault lrape lrob lprison 1.0000 lmurder -0.4156 1.000 lassault -0.1669 0.6489 1.000 lrape -0.1820 0.6054 0.2859 1.000 lrob -0.2739 0.5204 0.5898 0.2632 1.000 standard deviations of URF residuals lprison lmurder lassault lrape lrob 0.01222 0.03243 0.02395 0.04835 0.05104 loglik = 916.03393 log|ê| = -40.7126 |ê| = 2.08322e-018 T = 45 log|Y'Y/T| = -25.1749 Rý(LR) = 1 Rý(LM) = 0.8623 F-test against unrestricted regressors, F(110, 88) = 18.291 [0.0000] ** variables entered unrestricted: Constant Trend F-tests on retained regressors, F(5, 17) lprison_1 5.38442 [0.0038] ** lprison_2 0.908682 [0.4983] lmurder_1 0.320325 [0.8939] lmurder_2 1.20220 [0.3498] lassault_1 0.422678 [0.8265] lassault_2 0.554536 [0.7331] lrape_1 0.704974 [0.6276] lrape_2 0.856040 [0.5298] lrob_1 0.435633 [0.8175] lrob_2 1.38964 [0.2773] crack 5.46418 [0.0035] ** prjdum 1.13772 [0.3786] lp1 2.86126 [0.0472] * lp2 2.18316 [0.1043] lp3 1.92768 [0.1423] lp4 0.841253 [0.5389] lnw 0.912317 [0.4962] linc 2.44654 [0.0762] lwel1 1.93345 [0.1413] lwel2 2.59112 [0.0643] lue 1.47774 [0.2485] lexec1 0.215753 [0.9510] correlation of actual and fitted lprison lmurder lassault lrape lrob 0.9998 0.9970 0.9997 0.9987 0.9986 Vector portmanteau statistic for 6 lags and 45 observations: 198.6 Testing for vector error autocorrelation from lags 1 to 2 Chiý(50) = 130.97 [0.0000] ** and F-Form(50, 35) = 1.4984 [0.1052] Vector normality test for residuals The present sample is: 1949 to 1993 Skewness -0.7396 -0.2498 -2.295 -1.299 -0.02810 Excess kurtosis -1.106 1.518 0.4103 -0.1573 -0.3308 Vector normality Chiý(10)= 11.397 [0.3274] Progress to date system T p log-likelihood Schwarz Hannan-Quinn 2 45 120 OLS 916.03393 -30.56 -33.58 1 45 170 OLS 1025.5179 -31.20 -35.48 Tests of model reduction System 1 --> System 2: F(50, 35) = 1.3455 [0.1792] TEST PARAMETER CONSTANCY DROP 5 OBSERVATIONS AND RE-ESTIMATE Results Window saved to VARFINAL.OUT EQ( 3) Estimating the unrestricted reduced form by OLS The present sample is: 1949 to 1993 less 5 forecasts The forecast period is: 1989 to 1993 URF Equation 1 for lprison Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob lprison_1 1.2529 0.22475 5.575 0.0000 lprison_2 -0.50435 0.19792 -2.548 0.0215 lmurder_1 -0.099413 0.14424 -0.689 0.5006 lmurder_2 0.099336 0.12846 0.773 0.4506 lassault_1 -0.11090 0.14792 -0.750 0.4643 lassault_2 -0.19186 0.13081 -1.467 0.1618 lrape_1 0.0066256 0.059527 0.111 0.9128 lrape_2 -0.013524 0.077431 -0.175 0.8635 lrob_1 0.11272 0.069267 1.627 0.1232 lrob_2 -0.039965 0.052660 -0.759 0.4589 crack 0.031135 0.011664 2.669 0.0168 prjdum 0.013399 0.018966 0.706 0.4901 lp1 -0.10360 0.10267 -1.009 0.3280 lp2 0.056644 0.11550 0.490 0.6305 lp3 0.53100 0.17610 3.015 0.0082 lp4 -0.33190 0.35154 -0.944 0.3591 lnw -0.16686 0.76961 -0.217 0.8311 linc -0.35709 0.34155 -1.045 0.3113 lwel1 -0.16633 0.096692 -1.720 0.1047 lwel2 0.16240 0.18169 0.894 0.3846 lue -0.0070960 0.035547 -0.200 0.8443 lexec1 -0.0023056 0.0070240 -0.328 0.7470 Constant 1.8074 1.3732 1.316 0.2066 Trend 0.022463 0.010206 2.201 0.0428 å = 0.0109468 RSS = 0.001917308226 URF Equation 2 for lmurder Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob lprison_1 -1.4994 0.53917 -2.781 0.0134 lprison_2 0.78439 0.47480 1.652 0.1180 lmurder_1 0.25972 0.34603 0.751 0.4638 lmurder_2 -0.36729 0.30817 -1.192 0.2507 lassault_1 -0.43425 0.35486 -1.224 0.2388 lassault_2 0.20704 0.31381 0.660 0.5188 lrape_1 0.18448 0.14280 1.292 0.2148 lrape_2 0.50968 0.18575 2.744 0.0144 lrob_1 0.035439 0.16617 0.213 0.8338 lrob_2 0.075465 0.12633 0.597 0.5586 crack 0.052636 0.027982 1.881 0.0783 prjdum 0.055564 0.045500 1.221 0.2397 lp1 0.074141 0.24631 0.301 0.7673 lp2 -0.11307 0.27708 -0.408 0.6886 lp3 -0.027491 0.42245 -0.065 0.9489 lp4 -0.11608 0.84333 -0.138 0.8922 lnw 3.3143 1.8463 1.795 0.0915 linc 1.8044 0.81938 2.202 0.0427 lwel1 0.19293 0.23196 0.832 0.4178 lwel2 -0.88102 0.43586 -2.021 0.0603 lue 0.16763 0.085275 1.966 0.0669 lexec1 -0.010306 0.016850 -0.612 0.5494 Constant -3.3295 3.2943 -1.011 0.3272 Trend -0.051974 0.024485 -2.123 0.0497 å = 0.026261 RSS = 0.01103427311 URF Equation 3 for lassault Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob lprison_1 -0.28095 0.47608 -0.590 0.5634 lprison_2 -0.16854 0.41925 -0.402 0.6930 lmurder_1 0.13012 0.30554 0.426 0.6759 lmurder_2 -0.26223 0.27211 -0.964 0.3496 lassault_1 -0.38154 0.31334 -1.218 0.2410 lassault_2 0.089224 0.27709 0.322 0.7516 lrape_1 -0.048196 0.12610 -0.382 0.7073 lrape_2 0.36642 0.16402 2.234 0.0401 lrob_1 0.080172 0.14673 0.546 0.5923 lrob_2 -0.11996 0.11155 -1.075 0.2981 crack 0.077191 0.024707 3.124 0.0065 prjdum 0.036892 0.040176 0.918 0.3721 lp1 0.32738 0.21749 1.505 0.1517 lp2 0.56015 0.24466 2.290 0.0360 lp3 0.49155 0.37302 1.318 0.2061 lp4 -0.30054 0.74465 -0.404 0.6919 lnw 2.2732 1.6302 1.394 0.1823 linc 2.2096 0.72350 3.054 0.0076 lwel1 0.023146 0.20482 0.113 0.9114 lwel2 -1.0822 0.38486 -2.812 0.0125 lue 0.22429 0.075297 2.979 0.0089 lexec1 -0.012860 0.014879 -0.864 0.4002 Constant -1.5745 2.9088 -0.541 0.5958 Trend 0.011228 0.021620 0.519 0.6106 å = 0.0231882 RSS = 0.008603102237 URF Equation 4 for lrape Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob lprison_1 -1.1826 0.94470 -1.252 0.2286 lprison_2 1.5618 0.83192 1.877 0.0788 lmurder_1 -0.16424 0.60628 -0.271 0.7899 lmurder_2 -0.81405 0.53996 -1.508 0.1511 lassault_1 0.32235 0.62177 0.518 0.6112 lassault_2 0.48197 0.54984 0.877 0.3937 lrape_1 0.38177 0.25021 1.526 0.1466 lrape_2 0.17909 0.32547 0.550 0.5897 lrob_1 0.20302 0.29115 0.697 0.4956 lrob_2 0.33533 0.22135 1.515 0.1493 crack -0.043638 0.049027 -0.890 0.3866 prjdum -0.0057442 0.079722 -0.072 0.9435 lp1 0.55070 0.43156 1.276 0.2201 lp2 -0.42805 0.48547 -0.882 0.3910 lp3 1.2668 0.74019 1.712 0.1063 lp4 -0.27038 1.4776 -0.183 0.8571 lnw -0.93958 3.2349 -0.290 0.7752 linc -0.16887 1.4357 -0.118 0.9078 lwel1 -0.33320 0.40643 -0.820 0.4244 lwel2 1.3270 0.76368 1.738 0.1015 lue -0.12311 0.14941 -0.824 0.4221 lexec1 0.0099850 0.029524 0.338 0.7396 Constant -5.8583 5.7720 -1.015 0.3252 Trend -0.053549 0.042901 -1.248 0.2299 å = 0.0460128 RSS = 0.03387484188 URF Equation 5 for lrob Variable Coefficient Std.Error t-value t-prob lprison_1 -3.1879 1.1155 -2.858 0.0114 lprison_2 0.15099 0.98231 0.154 0.8798 lmurder_1 0.096675 0.71588 0.135 0.8943 lmurder_2 -0.24341 0.63757 -0.382 0.7077 lassault_1 -0.15920 0.73417 -0.217 0.8311 lassault_2 0.030005 0.64924 0.046 0.9637 lrape_1 -0.040806 0.29545 -0.138 0.8919 lrape_2 0.52054 0.38430 1.355 0.1944 lrob_1 -0.031911 0.34378 -0.093 0.9272 lrob_2 -0.092441 0.26136 -0.354 0.7282 crack 0.064654 0.057891 1.117 0.2806 prjdum 0.17565 0.094134 1.866 0.0805 lp1 0.096989 0.50958 0.190 0.8514 lp2 0.35841 0.57324 0.625 0.5406 lp3 -0.26581 0.87400 -0.304 0.7649 lp4 3.0845 1.7447 1.768 0.0961 lnw 1.8876 3.8197 0.494 0.6279 linc -0.51837 1.6952 -0.306 0.7637 lwel1 0.82006 0.47990 1.709 0.1068 lwel2 -1.3800 0.90174 -1.530 0.1455 lue 0.15245 0.17642 0.864 0.4003 lexec1 -0.0075759 0.034861 -0.217 0.8307 Constant 7.3594 6.8155 1.080 0.2962 Trend 0.085175 0.050656 1.681 0.1121 å = 0.0543309 RSS = 0.04722952733 correlation of URF residuals lprison lmurder lassault lrape lrob lprison 1.000 lmurder -0.5535 1.000 lassault -0.3500 0.5842 1.0000 lrape -0.09003 0.5190 0.1911 1.000 lrob -0.3387 0.4895 0.6045 0.1180 1.000 standard deviations of URF residuals lprison lmurder lassault lrape lrob 0.01095 0.02626 0.02319 0.04601 0.05433 loglik = 842.47201 log|ê| = -42.1236 |ê| = 5.08104e-019 T = 40 log|Y'Y/T| = -26.2216 Rý(LR) = 1 Rý(LM) = 0.860831 F-test against unrestricted regressors, F(110, 63) = 14.268 [0.0000] ** variables entered unrestricted: Constant Trend F-tests on retained regressors, F(5, 12) lprison_1 5.91143 [0.0056] ** lprison_2 1.81325 [0.1847] lmurder_1 0.202981 [0.9550] lmurder_2 0.457863 [0.8001] lassault_1 1.33862 [0.3130] lassault_2 0.503189 [0.7685] lrape_1 0.724944 [0.6177] lrape_2 1.94935 [0.1593] lrob_1 0.741651 [0.6070] lrob_2 0.844692 [0.5437] crack 6.23314 [0.0045] ** prjdum 1.25358 [0.3445] lp1 1.17362 [0.3771] lp2 1.57681 [0.2397] lp3 2.78798 [0.0676] lp4 1.19197 [0.3694] lnw 1.18201 [0.3735] linc 3.05232 [0.0526] lwel1 1.11298 [0.4037] lwel2 2.82596 [0.0652] lue 2.58083 [0.0828] lexec1 0.379657 [0.8532] correlation of actual and fitted lprison lmurder lassault lrape lrob 0.9996 0.9983 0.9997 0.9989 0.9986 1-step (ex post) forecast analysis 1989 to 1993 Parameter constancy forecast tests: using ê Chiý(25)= 666.8 [0.0000]** F(25,16)= 26.672 [0.0000]** using V[e] Chiý(25)= 47.148 [0.0047]** F(25,16)= 1.8859 [0.0952] using V[E] Chiý(25)= 47 [0.0049]** F(25,16)= 1.88 [0.0963] Results Window saved to VARFINAL.OUT