Carlisle E. Moody 

Department of Economics
College of William and Mary
Williamsburg, VA 23187-8795
Office: (757) 221-2373; Cell (757)870-7708


B.A., Colby College, Waterville, Maine, 1965 (Economics)
M.A., University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut, 1966 (Economics)
Ph.D., University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut, 1970 (Economics)


Professor of Economics, College of William and Mary, 1989-
Chair of the Department of Economics, College of William and Mary 1997- 2003
Associate Professor of Economics, College of William and Mary, 1975-1989.
Assistant Professor of Economics, College of William and Mary, 1970-1975.
Lecturer in Econometrics, University of Leeds, Leeds, England, 1968-1970.


Stanford Research Institute
Virginia Marine Resources Commission
U.S. General Accounting Office
U.S. Department of Transportation
U.S. Department of Energy
National Center for State Courts
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Justec Research.
The Orkand Corporation
Washington Consulting Group
Decision Analysis Corporation of Virginia
SAIC Corporation
West Publishing Group
Independent Institute

Research and Teaching Fields

Law and Economics
Time Series Analysis


National Defense Education Act Fellow, University of Connecticut, 1965-1968.

Bredin Fellow, College of William and Mary, 1982.

Member, Methodology Review Panel, Prison Population Forecast, Virginia Department of Planning and Budget, 1987-1993.

Notable Individuals, Micro Computer Industry, 1983.

Speaker, Institute of Medicine and National Research Council Committe of Priorities for a Public Health Research Agenda to Reduce the Threat of Firearm-related Violence, National Academies of Science, Washington, DC, April 23, 2013.

Member, Methodology Review Panel, Prison Population Forecast, Virginia Department of Corrections, 2012-.

Principal Investigator, Rand Corporation Grant No. 790751, Estimating the Impact of Three Categories of Gun-Related Laws, 2019-2020, $57,042.

Refereed Publications

“Does the Federal Law Forbidding People under Domestic Violence Restraining Orders from Possessing Firearms Save Lives?” (with J.R. Lott) Economics, Law and Policy, 6(4), 2023.

“Is There a Policy that Reduces Mass Public Shooting Deaths?” Economics, Law and Policy,6(2), 2023. p. 15. DOI:10.22158/elp.v6n2p15

“Do Right to Carry Laws Still Reduce Violent Crime?”, (with J.R. Lott) Academia Letters, 2022,

“Do White Police Officers Unfairly Target Black Suspects?”, (with J.R. Lott) Economics, Law and Policy, 4, 14-39, 2021

“Clustering and Standard Error Bias in Fixed Effects Panel Data Regressions,” (with T.B. Marvell) Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 36, 347-369. 2020.

 “Brought into the Open: How the U.S. Compares with Other Countries in the Rate of Public Mass Shooters,” (with John Lott), Econ Journal Watch 71(1), 2020.

“Econometric Modeling and Model Falsification,” (with George M. Lady), Advances in Pure Mathematics 9(9), 2019.

“Do Right to Carry Laws Increase Violent Crime? A Comment on Donohue, Aneja, and Weber,” (with T.B. Marvell) Econ Journal Watch, 16(1), 2019.

“Is the United States an Outlier in Mass Public Shootings? A Comment on Adam Lankford.” (with John Lott)  Econ Journal Watch, 16(1), 2019.

“The Impact of Right-to-Carry Laws: Critique of the 2014 version of Aneja, Donohue, and Zhang,” (with T.B. Marvell) Econ Journal Watch, February 2018.

“Firearms and the Decline in Violence in Europe 1201-2010,” Review of European Studies, 9(2) 2017

"The Impact of Right-to-Carry Laws on Crime: An Exercise in Replication," (with T.B. Marvell, P.R. Zimmerman and Fisal Alemante) Review of Economics and Finance, 4(1) 2014, 33-43.

"Did John Lott Provide Bad Data to the NRC? A Note on Aneja, Donohue, and Zhang," (with J.R. Lott and T.B. Marvell) Econ Journal Watch, January 2013.

“On the Choice of Control Variables in the Crime Equation,” (with T.B. Marvell) Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 72(5) 2010, 696-715.

"The Debate on Shall-Issue Laws, Continued," (with T.B. Marvell) Econ Journal Watch, 6(2) March 2009, 203-217.

"The Debate on Shall-Issue Laws," (with T.B. Marvell) Econ Journal Watch, 5(3) September 2008, 269-293.

“Can and Should Criminology Research Influence Policy? Suggestions for Time-Series Cross-Section Studies” (with T.B. Marvell) Criminology and Public Policy 7(1) August, 2008, 359-364.

"Guns and Crime," (with T.B. Marvell), Southern Economic Journal, 71(4), April, 2005, 720-736.

"When Prisoners Get Out," (with Kovandzic, Marvell and Vieraitis), Criminal Justice Policy Review, 15, 2004, 212-228.

"The Impact of Right-to-Carry Concealed Firearms Laws on Mass Public Shootings," (with Tomislav Kovandzic and Grant Duwe), Homicide Studies, 6, 2002, 271-296.

"Testing for the Effects of Concealed Weapons Laws: Specification Errors and Robustness," Journal of Law and Economics, 44 (PT.2), 2001, 799-813.

"The Lethal Effects of Three-Strikes Laws," (with T.B. Marvell), Journal of Legal Studies, 30,  2001, 89-106.

"Female and Male Homicide Victimization Rates: Comparing Trends and Regressors," (with T. B. Marvell), Criminology, 37, 1999, 879-902.

“The Impact of Out-of-State Prison Population on State Homicide Rates: Displacement and Free-Rider Effects,” (with T.B. Marvell), Criminology, 30, 1998, 513-535.

"The Impact of Prison Growth on Homicide," (with T.B. Marvell) Homicide Studies, 1, 1997, 215-233.

"Age Structure, Trends, and Prison Populations," (with T.B. Marvell) Journal of Criminal Justice, 25, 1997, 114-124.

"Police Levels, Crime Rates, and Specification Problems," (with T.B. Marvell) Criminology,  24, 1996, 606-646.

"A Regional Linear Logit Fuel Demand Model for Electric Utilities," Energy Economics,  18, 1996, 295-314.

"The Uncertain Timing of Innovations in Time Series: Minnesota Sentencing Guidelines and Jail Sentences," (with T.B. Marvell) Criminology,  34, May, 1996.

"Determinant Sentencing and Abolishing Parole: the Long Term Impacts on Prisons and Crime," (with T.B. Marvell), Criminology, 34, 1996.

"The Impact of Enhanced Prison Terms for Felonies Committed with Guns" (with T.B. Marvell) Criminology, Vol. 33, 1995.

"Prison Population Growth and Crime Reduction." (with T.B. Marvell) Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 10, 1994, 109-140.

"Alternative Bidding Systems for Leasing Offshore Oil: Experimental Evidence." Economica, 61, 1994, 345-353.

"Forecasting the Marginal Costs of a Multiple Output Production Technology." (with G. Lady), Journal of Forecasting, 12, 1993, 421-436.

"Volunteer Attorneys as Appellate Judges." (with T.B. Marvell) The Justice System Journal, 16, 1992, 49-64.

"Age Structure and Crime Rates: Conflicting Evidence." (with T.B. Marvell) Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 7, 1991, 237-273.

"OCS Leasing Policy and Lease Prices." (with W.J. Kruvant) Land Economics, 66, February 1990, 30-39.

"The Effectiveness of Measures to Increase Appellate Court Efficiency and Decision Output." (with T.B. Marvell) Michigan Journal of Law Reform, 21, 1988, 415- 442.

"Joint Bidding, Entry, and OCS Lease Prices" (with W.J. Kruvant) Rand Journal of Economics, 19, Summer 1988, 276-284.

"Appellate and Trial Caseload Growth: A Pooled Time Series Cross Section Approach" (with T.B. Marvell) Journal of Quantitative Criminology,  3, 1987.

"The Impact of Economic and Judgeship Changes on Federal District Court Filings" (with T.B. Marvell) Judicature, Vol. 69, No. 3, Oct./Nov. 1985, 156.

"The GAO Natural Gas Supply Model" (with P.A. Valentine and W.J. Kruvant) Energy Economics, January 1985, 49-57.

"Strategy, Structure and Performance of Major Energy Producers: Evidence from Line of Business Data" (with A.T. Andersen and J.A. Rasmussen) Review of Industrial Organization, Winter, 1984: 290-307.

"Quality, Price, Advertising and Published Quality Ratings" (with R.A. Archibald and C.A. Haulman) Journal of Consumer Research, Vol. 4, No. 4, March 1983, 347-56.

"Sources of Productivity Decline in U.S. Coal Mining" (with W. Kruvant and P. Valentine) The Energy Journal, Vol. 3, No. 3, 1982, 53-70.

"Seasonal Variation in Residential Electricity Demand: Evidence from Survey Data," (with R.A. Archibald and D.H. Finifter), Applied Economics, Vol. 14, No. 2, April 1982, 167-181.

"The Subsidy Effects of the Crude Oil Entitlements Program," Atlantic Economic Journal, Vol. 8, No. 2, July, 1980, 103.

"Industrial Generation of Electricity in 1985: A Regional Forecast," Review of Regional Studies, Vol. 8, No. 2, 1980, 33-43.

"The Measurement of Capital Services by Electrical Energy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, February 1974.

"Air Quality, Environment and Metropolitan Community Structure" (With Craig Humphrey), Review of Regional Studies, Winter 1973.

"Productivity Change in Zambian Mining" (With Norman Kessel), South African Journal of Economics, March 1972.

Other Publications

Heller, McDonald and Murder: Testing the More Guns=More Murder Thesis," (with Don Kates), Fordham Urban Law Review, Vol. 39, No. 5, 2012.

"Brief for the International Law Enforcement Educators and Trainers Association (ILEETA), International Association of Law Enforcement Firearms Instructors (IALEFI), Southern States Police Benevolent Association, Texas Police Chiefs Association, Law Enforcement Alliance of America, Congress of Racial Equality, the Claremont Institute, Professors Carlisle E. Moody, Roy T. Wortman, Raymond Kessler, Gary Mauser, Dr. Sterling Burnett, and the Independent Institute in Support of Petitioners," Supreme Court of the United States, No. 08-1521, Otis D. McDonald, et. al. vs City of Chicago,, December 2009.

"Firearms and Homicide" in B. Benson and P. Zimmerman (eds.), Handbook on the Economics of Crime, Edward Elgar, Northampton, MA 2010, 432-451.

“Is there a Relationship between Guns and Freedom? Comparative Results from 59 Nations.” (with David B. Kopel and Howard Nemerov), Texas Review of Law and Politics 13(1), 1-42, Fall 2008.

"Brief of Academics as Amici Curiae in Support of Respondent." Supreme Court of the United States, No. 07-290, District of Columbia vs. Dick Anthony Heller, February 2008. Cited by Breyer, J. Dissenting, pp. 21-22.

"Econometric Research on Crime Rates: Prisons, Crime, and Simultaneous Equations" in Mark Cohen and Jacek Czabanske, Ekonomiczne, Podejscie Do Przestepczosci, Ius et Lux, Warsaw, 2007, 235-258 (in Polish).

"Simulation Modeling and Policy Analysis," Criminology & Public Policy, 1, 2002, 393-398.


“Unintended Consequences: Three Strikes Laws and the Murders of Police Officers,” (with T. Marvell and R. Kaminski), National Institute of Justice (NCJ Number 203649), 2002.


“Crime and Economic Trends” (with T. Marvell). Paper presented to the American Society of Criminology, November 1988.

"Game Theory and Football" (with David Ribar), Access: The Journal of Microcomputer Applications, Vol. 4, No. 3, Nov./Dec. 1985, 5-15.

"Reasons for State Appellate Caseload Growth" (with T. Marvell) Bureau of Justice Statistics, Department of Justice, 1985.

"State Appellate Caseload Growth: Documentary Appendix." (with Marvell, et. al.) National Center for State Courts, Williamsburg, VA, 1985.

"Model Documentation for the Mini-Macroeconomic Model: MINMAC" Washington, D.C., Energy Information Administration, 1984.

"Neighborhood Segregation." (with E.S. Dethlefsen.) Byte, The Small Systems Journal, Vol. 7, No. 7, July 1982, 178-206.

"Technological Progress and Energy Use," Proceedings of the Third Annual University of Missouri, Missouri Energy Council Conference on Energy, October, 1976.

"Technological Change in the Soviet Chemical Industry," Technical Note SSC-TN-2625-8 Stanford Research Institute, 1975 (With F.W. Rushing).

"Feasibility Study of Inter-City Transit Via Southern Railway R/W, Norfolk and Virginia Beach Corridor" (With R.H. Bigelow, S.H. Baker and M.A. Garrett), U.S. Department of Transportation, 1974.

"Productivity Growth in U.S. Manufacturing," in 1973 Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical Association.